TEXAS LUTHERAN
BULLDOGSTL
0-0 | Road
55
INCARNATE WORD
CARDINALSUIW
4-3 | Home
117
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
CARDINALS
0%
BULLDOGS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
INCARNATE WORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Incarnate Word)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UIW -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UIW)
TL By 1-7 points
4.8%
TL By 8-14 points
1.1%
UIW By 1-7 points
15.3%
UIW By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas Lutheran
69
TEXAS LUTHERAN
Incarnate Word
84
INCARNATE WORD
Simulated Score
Texas Lutheran
55
TEXAS LUTHERAN
Incarnate Word
88
INCARNATE WORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -33.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 26, 2025
TL @ UIW
55 - 117
Dec 29, 2024
TL @ UIW
48 - 99
Nov 15, 2022
TL @ UIW
47 - 84
Nov 12, 2019
TL @ UIW
60 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+50.4% more
Incarnate Word: 12.3
vs
Texas Lutheran: 8.2
Blocks (L5)
+46.0% more
Incarnate Word: 2.0
vs
Texas Lutheran: 1.4
Rebounding (L5)
+25.9% more
Incarnate Word: 34.7
vs
Texas Lutheran: 27.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+17.4%
Incarnate Word: 46.6%
vs
Texas Lutheran: 29.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TL Score
69.0
55
UIW Score
84.0
117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.7 / 21.7
54.0 / 33.0
Assists
12.3 / 8.2
19.0 / 10.0
Blocks
2.0 / 1.4
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.6 / 29.1
61.0 / 33.0
Free Throw %
72.6 / 60.0
81.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
34.7 / 27.5
52.0 / 20.0
Steals
4.9 / 5.9
9.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
9.8 / 17.2
9.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TL
--
UIW
Advantage
12-19-0
(38.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TL
--
UIW
Advantage
10-18-0
(35.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
TL
--
UIW
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UIW
TL
UIW
TL
ML
47%
14-16
100%
2-0
76%
22-7
100%
2-0
ATS
53%
16-14
100%
2-0
77%
23-7
100%
2-0
TTL
60%
18-12
100%
2-0
100%
30-0
100%
2-0
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