ST. XAVIER (IL)
COUGARSSTX
0-0 | Road
62
CHICAGO STATE
COUGARSCHST
1-8 | Home
85
AI Model Win Probability
COUGARS
0%
COUGARS
100%
COUGARS
--
COUGARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-34.0
ST. XAVIER (IL)
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +34.0 points (St. Xavier (IL))
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around STX -34.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STX)
STX By 1-7 points
0.4%
STX By 8-14 points
2.2%
CHST By 1-7 points
0.0%
CHST By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Xavier (IL)
98
ST. XAVIER (IL)
Chicago State
64
CHICAGO STATE
Simulated Score
St. Xavier (IL)
60
ST. XAVIER (IL)
Chicago State
85
CHICAGO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cougars
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cougars
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cougars (+16.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -34.0
D
Sim
Cougars (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o154.5
Loss
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 1, 2025
STX @ CHST
62 - 85
Jan 21, 2024
STX @ CHST
58 - 108
Feb 11, 2023
STX @ CHST
67 - 91
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+75.7% more
St. Xavier (IL): 2.7
vs
Chicago State: 0.7
Assists (L5)
+19.8% more
St. Xavier (IL): 10.8
vs
Chicago State: 8.7
Turnovers (L5)
+12.9% more
St. Xavier (IL): 15.1
vs
Chicago State: 13.2
Steals (L5)
+11.0% more
St. Xavier (IL): 9.7
vs
Chicago State: 8.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STX Score
98.0
62
CHST Score
64.0
85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.6 / 29.0
27.0 / 37.0
Assists
8.7 / 10.8
12.0 / 12.0
Blocks
0.7 / 2.7
0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
41.5 / 34.3
44.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
77.7 / 61.7
58.0 / 43.0
Rebounding
30.6 / 32.9
57.0 / 24.0
Steals
8.6 / 9.7
8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
13.2 / 15.1
15.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STX
--
CHST
Advantage
7-25-0
(21.9%)
Margin: -10.3
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STX
--
CHST
Advantage
15-15-1
(50.0%)
Margin: -10.3
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
STX
--
CHST
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHST
STX
CHST
STX
ML
75%
24-8
50%
1-1
73%
22-8
100%
2-0
ATS
69%
22-10
50%
1-1
73%
22-8
100%
2-0
TTL
44%
14-18
50%
1-1
100%
30-0
100%
2-0
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