Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Pioneers @ Buccaneers TUS @ ETSU

TUSCULUM

PIONEERSTUS

0-0  |  Road

62
FINAL
Sun, Dec 7 • 2:00 PM ET
Freedom Hall (TN)
View Odds Details →

EAST TENNESSEE STATE

BUCCANEERSETSU

8-2  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
PIONEERS
0%
📊
BUCCANEERS
100%
PIONEERS --
BUCCANEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-39.0
TUSCULUM
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +39.0 points (Tusculum)
PioneersTUS (-3.5) 0 BuccaneersETSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pioneers Cover

100.0%

Buccaneers Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TUS -39.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TUS)

TUS By 1-7 points

0.1%

TUS By 8-14 points

0.6%

ETSU By 1-7 points

0.0%

ETSU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
94
TUSCULUM
55
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Simulated Score
52
TUSCULUM
78
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pioneers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buccaneers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pioneers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -39.0
D
Sim Buccaneers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 130.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 7, 2025 TUS @ ETSU 62 - 78
Nov 13, 2024 TUS @ ETSU 54 - 82
Dec 15, 2023 TUS @ ETSU 43 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +22.7% more
Tusculum: 16.0 vs East Tennessee State: 12.4
Steals (L5) +95.9% more
East Tennessee State: 10.4 vs Tusculum: 5.3
Assists (L5) +84.1% more
East Tennessee State: 17.6 vs Tusculum: 9.5
Blocks (L5) +50.6% more
East Tennessee State: 4.1 vs Tusculum: 2.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TUS Score 94.0 62
ETSU Score 55.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.4 / 25.2 29.0 / 29.0
Assists 17.6 / 9.5 15.0 / 11.0
Blocks 4.1 / 2.7 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 49.0 / 35.1 48.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 72.6 / 71.6 65.0 / 33.0
Rebounding 37.1 / 35.4 43.0 / 40.0
Steals 10.4 / 5.3 8.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 16.0 13.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TUS
--
ETSU Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TUS
--
ETSU Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
TUS
--
ETSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ETSU
TUS
ETSU
TUS
ML
42% 14-19
50% 1-1
70% 23-10
100% 2-0
ATS
58% 19-14
50% 1-1
70% 23-10
100% 2-0
TTL
45% 15-18
100% 1-0-1
100% 33-0
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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