Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Eagles TF @ WIN

TOCCOA FALLS

EAGLESTF

0-0  |  Road

62
FINAL
Tue, Dec 9 • 6:30 PM ET
Winthrop Coliseum
View Odds Details →

WINTHROP

EAGLESWIN

6-5  |  Home

111
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
EAGLES
0%
EAGLES --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
171.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
WINTHROP
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Winthrop)
EaglesTF (-3.5) 0 EaglesWIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

0.6%

Eagles Cover

99.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WIN -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WIN)

TF By 1-7 points

0.5%

TF By 8-14 points

0.1%

WIN By 1-7 points

3.3%

WIN By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
73
TOCCOA FALLS
98
WINTHROP
Simulated Score
48
TOCCOA FALLS
102
WINTHROP
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Eagles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -54.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 171.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 9, 2025 TF @ WIN 62 - 111
Dec 29, 2023 TF @ WIN 62 - 113
Nov 29, 2022 TF @ WIN 52 - 99
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +161.9% more
Winthrop: 3.9 vs Toccoa Falls: 1.5
Assists (L5) +97.7% more
Winthrop: 15.1 vs Toccoa Falls: 7.7
Rebounding (L5) +25.3% more
Winthrop: 41.5 vs Toccoa Falls: 33.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +11.6%
Winthrop: 33.2% vs Toccoa Falls: 21.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TF Score 73.0 62
WIN Score 98.0 111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.2 / 21.6 41.0 / 28.0
Assists 15.1 / 7.7 20.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.9 / 1.5 7.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 44.2 / 35.4 55.0 / 32.0
Free Throw % 76.0 / 70.3 78.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 41.5 / 33.1 56.0 / 25.0
Steals 6.1 / 7.2 12.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 18.4 12.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TF
--
WIN Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TF
--
WIN Advantage
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
TF
--
WIN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WIN
TF
WIN
TF
ML
70% 23-10
33% 1-2
79% 26-7
100% 3-0
ATS
79% 26-7
33% 1-2
79% 26-7
100% 3-0
TTL
58% 19-14
100% 3-0
100% 33-0
100% 3-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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