Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Penguins @ Golden Bears DOMIN @ CAL

DOMINICAN (CA)

PENGUINSDOMIN

0-0  |  Road

71
FINAL
Tue, Dec 9 • 10:00 PM ET
Haas Pavilion
View Odds Details →

CALIFORNIA

GOLDEN BEARSCAL

9-1  |  Home

93
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
50%
📊
GOLDEN BEARS
50%
PENGUINS --
GOLDEN BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
99.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
DOMINICAN (CA)
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Dominican (CA))
PenguinsDOMIN (-3.5) 0 Golden BearsCAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Penguins Cover

75.8%

Golden Bears Cover

24.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DOMIN -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DOMIN)

DOMIN By 1-7 points

26.2%

DOMIN By 8-14 points

25.3%

CAL By 1-7 points

15.3%

CAL By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
53
DOMINICAN (CA)
46
CALIFORNIA
Simulated Score
58
DOMINICAN (CA)
85
CALIFORNIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Golden Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI 99
Proj Total: 99.0
D
Sim o157.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 9, 2025 DOMIN @ CAL 71 - 93
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +37.3% more
Dominican (CA): 7.0 vs California: 4.4
Free Throw % (L5) +18.7%
Dominican (CA): 89.0% vs California: 70.3%
Rebounding (L5) +13.9% more
Dominican (CA): 40.0 vs California: 34.4
Assists (L5) +12.1% more
Dominican (CA): 16.0 vs California: 14.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DOMIN Score 53.0 71
CAL Score 46.0 93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.8 / 27.0 30.0 / 42.0
Assists 14.1 / 16.0 8.0 / 18.0
Blocks 4.1 / 3.0 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.7 / 36.0 41.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 70.3 / 89.0 90.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 34.4 / 40.0 39.0 / 34.0
Steals 4.4 / 7.0 11.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 10.0 / 10.0 5.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DOMIN
--
CAL Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DOMIN
--
CAL Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DOMIN
--
CAL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAL
DOMIN
CAL
DOMIN
ML
61% 20-13
-- 0-0
77% 24-7
-- 0-0
ATS
64% 21-12
-- 0-0
78% 25-7
100% 2-0
TTL
70% 23-10
-- 0-0
100% 32-0
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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