Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Polars @ Fighting Hawks CRWN @ UND

CROWN COLLEGE

POLARSCRWN

0-0  |  Road

43
FINAL
Wed, Dec 10 • 8:00 PM ET
Betty Engelstad Sioux Center
View Odds Details →

NORTH DAKOTA

FIGHTING HAWKSUND

4-8  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
POLARS
0%
📊
FIGHTING HAWKS
100%
POLARS --
FIGHTING HAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
130.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+8.0
NORTH DAKOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
PolarsCRWN (-3.5) 0 Fighting HawksUND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Polars Cover

21.2%

Fighting Hawks Cover

78.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UND +8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UND)

CRWN By 1-7 points

25.3%

CRWN By 8-14 points

26.2%

UND By 1-7 points

13.7%

UND By 8-14 points

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
69
CROWN COLLEGE
61
NORTH DAKOTA
Simulated Score
52
CROWN COLLEGE
88
NORTH DAKOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Polars Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Fighting Hawks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Fighting Hawks (+12) Win
Proj Spread: +8.0
D
Sim Fighting Hawks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -36.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 130.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 10, 2025 CRWN @ UND 43 - 89
Nov 7, 2019 CRWN @ UND 61 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +28.1% more
Crown College: 12.8 vs North Dakota: 9.2
Turnovers (L5) +8.1% more
Crown College: 13.9 vs North Dakota: 12.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.6%
Crown College: 33.2% vs North Dakota: 27.5%
Steals (L5) +170.9% more
North Dakota: 10.3 vs Crown College: 3.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CRWN Score 69.0 43
UND Score 61.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.5 / 33.2 32.0 / 23.0
Assists 9.2 / 12.8 20.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.8 / 2.4 0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 40.2 / 36.4 46.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 68.9 / 68.3 76.0 / 38.0
Rebounding 29.9 / 32.4 51.0 / 27.0
Steals 10.3 / 3.8 14.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 13.9 12.0 / 27.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CRWN
--
UND Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CRWN
--
UND Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
CRWN
--
UND
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UND
CRWN
UND
CRWN
ML
44% 15-19
0% 0-1
50% 17-17
100% 1-0
ATS
50% 17-17
100% 1-0
50% 17-17
100% 1-0
TTL
65% 22-12
100% 1-0
100% 34-0
100% 1-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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