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DAKOTA WESLEYAN

TIGERSDWU

0-0  |  Road

62
FINAL
Fri, Dec 12 • 8:00 PM ET
First Bank & Trust Arena
View Odds Details →

SOUTH DAKOTA STATE

JACKRABBITSSDST

7-5  |  Home

94
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
JACKRABBITS
0%
TIGERS --
JACKRABBITS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (South Dakota State)
TigersDWU (-3.5) 0 JackrabbitsSDST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

0.2%

Jackrabbits Cover

99.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SDST -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDST)

DWU By 1-7 points

0.1%

DWU By 8-14 points

0.0%

SDST By 1-7 points

1.4%

SDST By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
51
DAKOTA WESLEYAN
80
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Simulated Score
62
DAKOTA WESLEYAN
88
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Jackrabbits Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jackrabbits Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Jackrabbits (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim Jackrabbits (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Loss
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 12, 2025 DWU @ SDST 62 - 94
Dec 2, 2024 DWU @ SDST 62 - 78
Nov 8, 2023 DWU @ SDST 55 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +28.7% more
South Dakota State: 2.3 vs Dakota Wesleyan: 1.8
Assists (L5) +17.8% more
South Dakota State: 13.6 vs Dakota Wesleyan: 11.6
Field Goal % (L5) +11.4%
South Dakota State: 44.1% vs Dakota Wesleyan: 32.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.9%
South Dakota State: 33.4% vs Dakota Wesleyan: 29.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DWU Score 51.0 62
SDST Score 80.0 94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.4 / 29.6 41.0 / 31.0
Assists 13.6 / 11.6 24.0 / 16.0
Blocks 2.3 / 1.8 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 44.1 / 32.7 56.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 71.5 / 84.6 52.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 36.4 / 33.8 51.0 / 28.0
Steals 5.3 / 7.4 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 11.1 12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DWU
--
SDST Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DWU
--
SDST Advantage
12-16-1 (42.9%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
DWU
--
SDST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDST
DWU
SDST
DWU
ML
75% 24-8
100% 1-0
53% 17-15
100% 1-0
ATS
78% 25-7
100% 1-0
53% 17-15
100% 1-0
TTL
53% 17-15
0% 0-1
100% 32-0
100% 1-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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