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CHICAGO STATE

COUGARSCHST

2-9  |  Road

55
FINAL
Tue, Dec 16 • 7:00 PM ET
Stroh Center
View Odds Details →

BOWLING GREEN

FALCONSBGSU

7-3  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
COUGARS
100%
📊
FALCONS
0%
COUGARS --
FALCONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
BOWLING GREEN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Bowling Green)
CougarsCHST (-3.5) 0 FalconsBGSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cougars Cover

27.4%

Falcons Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BGSU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BGSU)

CHST By 1-7 points

16.9%

CHST By 8-14 points

6.8%

BGSU By 1-7 points

26.8%

BGSU By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
71
CHICAGO STATE
77
BOWLING GREEN
Simulated Score
63
CHICAGO STATE
78
BOWLING GREEN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Falcons Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Falcons Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Falcons (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Falcons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 16, 2025 CHST @ BGSU 55 - 76
Nov 6, 2023 CHST @ BGSU 41 - 70
Nov 28, 2021 CHST @ BGSU 57 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +162.9% more
Bowling Green: 4.6 vs Chicago State: 1.8
Assists (L5) +76.5% more
Bowling Green: 17.9 vs Chicago State: 10.1
Steals (L5) +56.8% more
Bowling Green: 14.7 vs Chicago State: 9.4
Field Goal % (L5) +14.1%
Bowling Green: 53.0% vs Chicago State: 38.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHST Score 71.0 55
BGSU Score 77.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.9 / 29.5 30.0 / 31.0
Assists 17.9 / 10.1 21.0 / 8.0
Blocks 4.6 / 1.8 10.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 53.0 / 38.9 51.0 / 29.0
Free Throw % 75.2 / 82.3 72.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 37.4 / 36.4 39.0 / 38.0
Steals 14.7 / 9.4 5.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 12.5 10.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHST
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -10.3 ATS +/-: +0.4
BGSU Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHST
15-15-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -10.3 ATS +/-: +0.4
BGSU
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
CHST
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.5
BGSU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1% Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BGSU
CHST
BGSU
CHST
ML
66% 21-11
75% 24-8
56% 18-14
73% 22-8
ATS
72% 23-9
69% 22-10
56% 18-14
73% 22-8
TTL
53% 17-15
44% 14-18
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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