Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Buccaneers @ Tar Heels ETSU @ UNC

EAST TENNESSEE STATE

BUCCANEERSETSU

8-4  |  Road

58
FINAL
Tue, Dec 16 • 8:00 PM ET
Dean E. Smith Center
View Odds Details →

NORTH CAROLINA

TAR HEELSUNC

10-1  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
BUCCANEERS
100%
📊
TAR HEELS
0%
BUCCANEERS --
TAR HEELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
126.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (North Carolina)
BuccaneersETSU (-3.5) 0 Tar HeelsUNC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buccaneers Cover

1.4%

Tar Heels Cover

98.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNC -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNC)

ETSU By 1-7 points

1.1%

ETSU By 8-14 points

0.1%

UNC By 1-7 points

5.8%

UNC By 8-14 points

15.3%

AI Model Projected Score
52
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
74
NORTH CAROLINA
Simulated Score
60
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
85
NORTH CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tar Heels Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tar Heels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tar Heels (-17.5) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Tar Heels (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 126.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 16, 2025 ETSU @ UNC 58 - 77
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.1%
North Carolina: 34.9% vs East Tennessee State: 31.8%
Steals (L5) +51.9% more
East Tennessee State: 9.1 vs North Carolina: 4.4
Blocks (L5) +40.1% more
East Tennessee State: 5.6 vs North Carolina: 3.4
Turnovers (L5) +27.9% more
East Tennessee State: 12.4 vs North Carolina: 8.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ETSU Score 52.0 58
UNC Score 74.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.9 / 31.8 32.0 / 30.0
Assists 16.2 / 16.8 18.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.4 / 5.6 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 47.0 / 47.8 54.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 66.9 / 73.1 65.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 40.1 / 37.7 35.0 / 23.0
Steals 4.4 / 9.1 3.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 8.9 / 12.4 7.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ETSU
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
UNC Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ETSU
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
UNC Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ETSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +2.5
UNC
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNC
ETSU
UNC
ETSU
ML
76% 25-8
42% 14-19
69% 22-10
70% 23-10
ATS
73% 24-9
58% 19-14
69% 22-10
70% 23-10
TTL
55% 18-15
45% 15-18
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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