PACIFIC
TIGERSPAC
8-4 | Road
57
BYU
COUGARSBYU
10-1 | Home
93
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
COUGARS
0%
TIGERS
--
COUGARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
BYU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (BYU)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BYU -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BYU)
PAC By 1-7 points
4.8%
PAC By 8-14 points
1.1%
BYU By 1-7 points
15.3%
BYU By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Pacific
73
PACIFIC
BYU
88
BYU
Simulated Score
Pacific
65
PACIFIC
BYU
88
BYU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cougars
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cougars
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cougars (-4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Cougars (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o150.5
Loss
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 16, 2025
PAC @ BYU
57 - 93
Feb 4, 2023
PAC @ BYU
66 - 81
Dec 29, 2022
BYU @ PAC
69 - 49
Jan 29, 2022
BYU @ PAC
73 - 76
Jan 6, 2022
PAC @ BYU
51 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+83.4% more
BYU: 9.7
vs
Pacific: 5.3
Blocks (L5)
+48.2% more
BYU: 4.6
vs
Pacific: 3.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.1%
BYU: 37.9%
vs
Pacific: 35.8%
Turnovers (L5)
+13.9% more
Pacific: 11.9
vs
BYU: 10.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PAC Score
73.0
57
BYU Score
88.0
93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.9 / 35.8
39.0 / 28.0
Assists
17.2 / 16.6
16.0 / 20.0
Blocks
4.6 / 3.1
6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
51.2 / 50.1
47.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
70.3 / 83.0
89.0 / 0.0
Rebounding
41.0 / 41.9
42.0 / 32.0
Steals
9.7 / 5.3
13.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
10.2 / 11.9
9.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PAC
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: +2.0
BYU
Advantage
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 8.1
ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PAC
Advantage
16-14-1
(53.3%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: +2.0
BYU
16-19-0
(45.7%)
Margin: 8.1
ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
PAC
10-19-2
O: 34.5% / U: 65.5%
Total +/-: -2.0
BYU
17-18-0
O: 48.6% / U: 51.4%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BYU
PAC
BYU
PAC
ML
60%
21-14
45%
15-18
72%
23-9
80%
24-6
ATS
54%
19-16
55%
18-15
72%
23-9
80%
24-6
TTL
69%
24-11
58%
19-14
100%
32-0
100%
30-0
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