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MONTANA STATE

BOBCATSMTST

4-7  |  Road

83
FINAL
Tue, Dec 16 • 10:00 PM ET
Mott Athletics Center
View Odds Details →

CAL POLY

MUSTANGSCP

5-6  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
100%
📊
MUSTANGS
0%
BOBCATS --
MUSTANGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
CAL POLY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Cal Poly)
BobcatsMTST (-3.5) 0 MustangsCP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bobcats Cover

3.6%

Mustangs Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CP -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CP)

MTST By 1-7 points

2.7%

MTST By 8-14 points

0.5%

CP By 1-7 points

10.7%

CP By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
68
MONTANA STATE
86
CAL POLY
Simulated Score
68
MONTANA STATE
72
CAL POLY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mustangs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mustangs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mustangs (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Mustangs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Win
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 16, 2025 MTST @ CP 83 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +53.1% more
Cal Poly: 17.4 vs Montana State: 11.4
Assists (L5) +25.3% more
Cal Poly: 13.6 vs Montana State: 10.9
Free Throw % (L5) +9.7%
Cal Poly: 79.0% vs Montana State: 69.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.9%
Cal Poly: 37.6% vs Montana State: 30.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTST Score 68.0 83
CP Score 86.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.6 / 30.7 29.0 / 28.0
Assists 13.6 / 10.9 8.0 / 16.0
Blocks 1.8 / 2.5 0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.4 / 42.2 40.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 79.0 / 69.4 71.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 36.5 / 34.1 47.0 / 39.0
Steals 5.8 / 7.6 2.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 17.4 / 11.4 11.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTST Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
CP
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTST Advantage
16-12-1 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
CP
16-14-1 (53.3%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MTST
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.5
CP
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CP
MTST
CP
MTST
ML
58% 19-14
52% 16-15
58% 19-14
67% 20-10
ATS
64% 21-12
52% 16-15
58% 19-14
67% 20-10
TTL
61% 20-13
65% 20-11
100% 33-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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