BELMONT
BRUINSBEL
11-1 | Road
83
EVANSVILLE
PURPLE ACESEVAN
4-8 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
BRUINS
100%
PURPLE ACES
0%
BRUINS
--
PURPLE ACES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
EVANSVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Evansville)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around EVAN -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EVAN)
BEL By 1-7 points
5.8%
BEL By 8-14 points
1.4%
EVAN By 1-7 points
16.9%
EVAN By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Belmont
67
BELMONT
Evansville
81
EVANSVILLE
Simulated Score
Belmont
78
BELMONT
Evansville
72
EVANSVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Purple Aces
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bruins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Purple Aces (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Bruins (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o147.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 25, 2026
EVAN @ BEL
64 - 98
Dec 16, 2025
BEL @ EVAN
83 - 78
Feb 2, 2025
EVAN @ BEL
80 - 75
Jan 18, 2025
BEL @ EVAN
85 - 82
Mar 3, 2024
EVAN @ BEL
66 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+124.0% more
Evansville: 6.1
vs
Belmont: 2.7
Turnovers (L5)
+10.2% more
Evansville: 13.6
vs
Belmont: 12.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.9%
Evansville: 66.0%
vs
Belmont: 59.1%
Assists (L5)
+27.3% more
Belmont: 18.7
vs
Evansville: 13.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BEL Score
67.0
83
EVAN Score
81.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.6 / 44.4
38.0 / 43.0
Assists
13.6 / 18.7
12.0 / 19.0
Blocks
6.1 / 2.7
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
41.7 / 54.0
38.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
66.0 / 59.1
83.0 / 72.0
Rebounding
32.5 / 37.9
37.0 / 38.0
Steals
5.1 / 5.6
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
13.6 / 12.4
13.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BEL
Advantage
26-6-0
(81.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +2.2
EVAN
7-25-0
(21.9%)
Margin: -9.5
ATS +/-: -3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BEL
Advantage
17-13-1
(56.7%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +2.2
EVAN
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -9.5
ATS +/-: -3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
BEL
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7%
Total +/-: +4.1
EVAN
16-13-1
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EVAN
BEL
EVAN
BEL
ML
56%
18-14
47%
15-17
62%
20-12
62%
20-12
ATS
66%
21-11
56%
18-14
62%
20-12
62%
20-12
TTL
62%
20-12
44%
14-18
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
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