Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Trojans @ Eagles LR @ MORE

LITTLE ROCK

TROJANSLR

2-8  |  Road

64
FINAL
Tue, Dec 16 • 7:30 PM ET
Ellis T. Johnson Arena
View Odds Details →

MOREHEAD STATE

EAGLESMORE

3-7  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
0%
📊
EAGLES
100%
TROJANS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
106.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
LITTLE ROCK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Little Rock)
TrojansLR (-3.5) 0 EaglesMORE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trojans Cover

72.6%

Eagles Cover

27.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LR -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LR)

LR By 1-7 points

26.8%

LR By 8-14 points

24.3%

MORE By 1-7 points

16.9%

MORE By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
56
LITTLE ROCK
50
MOREHEAD STATE
Simulated Score
70
LITTLE ROCK
74
MOREHEAD STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Trojans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Trojans (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 106.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 26, 2026 MORE @ LR 76 - 70
Dec 16, 2025 LR @ MORE 64 - 78
Feb 8, 2025 LR @ MORE 76 - 62
Jan 9, 2025 MORE @ LR 59 - 53
Mar 9, 2024 MORE @ LR 69 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +11.3% more
Little Rock: 8.0 vs Morehead State: 7.1
Assists (L5) +10.6% more
Little Rock: 12.3 vs Morehead State: 11.0
Blocks (L5) +10.1% more
Little Rock: 3.7 vs Morehead State: 3.3
Rebounding (L5) +14.3% more
Morehead State: 32.9 vs Little Rock: 28.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LR Score 56.0 64
MORE Score 50.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.5 / 35.8 31.0 / 25.0
Assists 11.0 / 12.3 19.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.3 / 3.7 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.1 / 42.0 46.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 67.5 / 54.4 76.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 32.9 / 28.8 41.0 / 24.0
Steals 7.1 / 8.0 9.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 13.6 18.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
17%MONEY83%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LR
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -2.0
MORE Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LR
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -2.0
MORE Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
LR
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.0
MORE
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MORE
LR
MORE
LR
ML
62% 20-12
52% 16-15
68% 21-10
68% 17-8
ATS
59% 19-13
45% 14-17
68% 21-10
68% 17-8
TTL
53% 17-15
58% 18-13
100% 31-0
100% 25-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Cayden Boozer's Return to Duke: Trusting the Vision in a Loaded …
si 1 day, 12 hours ago
Week 7 High School Football Picks: Mater Dei Faces JSerra, Chami…
si 1 day, 18 hours ago
Kentucky's AP Poll Exit Exposes Uphill Battle for National Respe…
yahoo 3 days, 1 hour ago
SDSU's Nick Anderson Making Speedy Recovery from ACL Surgery, Ey…
headtopics 6 days, 18 hours ago
Calipari Drops Stunner: Nine Arkansas Players Outearn Assistant …
yahoo 1 week ago