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ST. XAVIER (IL)

COUGARSSTX

0-0  |  Road

65
FINAL
Sun, Dec 14 • 3:00 PM ET
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SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE

REDHAWKSSEMO

5-6  |  Home

88
AI Model Win Probability
COUGARS
100%
📊
REDHAWKS
0%
COUGARS --
REDHAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
171.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (Southeast Missouri State)
CougarsSTX (-3.5) 0 RedhawksSEMO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cougars Cover

0.0%

Redhawks Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SEMO -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEMO)

STX By 1-7 points

0.0%

STX By 8-14 points

0.0%

SEMO By 1-7 points

0.3%

SEMO By 8-14 points

1.7%

AI Model Projected Score
68
ST. XAVIER (IL)
103
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Simulated Score
58
ST. XAVIER (IL)
92
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Redhawks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Redhawks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Redhawks (-19.5) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
D
Sim Redhawks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -34.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o148.5 Win
Proj Total: 171.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 14, 2025 STX @ SEMO 65 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +46.4% more
Southeast Missouri State: 3.1 vs St. Xavier (IL): 2.1
Assists (L5) +18.0% more
Southeast Missouri State: 13.2 vs St. Xavier (IL): 11.2
Rebounding (L5) +15.7% more
Southeast Missouri State: 34.6 vs St. Xavier (IL): 29.9
Free Throw % (L5) +12.5%
Southeast Missouri State: 68.0% vs St. Xavier (IL): 55.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STX Score 68.0 65
SEMO Score 103.0 88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.3 / 31.7 32.0 / 33.0
Assists 13.2 / 11.2 19.0 / 5.0
Blocks 3.1 / 2.1 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 47.0 / 36.2 51.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 68.0 / 55.4 72.0 / 58.0
Rebounding 34.6 / 29.9 37.0 / 30.0
Steals 6.8 / 8.4 11.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 12.0 / 15.4 15.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STX
--
SEMO Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STX
--
SEMO Advantage
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
STX
--
SEMO
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7% Total +/-: -2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEMO
STX
SEMO
STX
ML
64% 21-12
50% 1-1
50% 15-15
100% 2-0
ATS
67% 22-11
50% 1-1
50% 15-15
100% 2-0
TTL
58% 19-14
50% 1-1
100% 30-0
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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