Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulls @ Pirates BUF @ ECU

BUFFALO

BULLSBUF

9-2  |  Road

70
FINAL
Sun, Dec 14 • 1:00 PM ET
Minges Coliseum
View Odds Details →

EAST CAROLINA

PIRATESECU

4-7  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
100%
📊
PIRATES
0%
BULLS --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
EAST CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (East Carolina)
BullsBUF (-3.5) 0 PiratesECU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulls Cover

18.4%

Pirates Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ECU -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ECU)

BUF By 1-7 points

12.2%

BUF By 8-14 points

4.0%

ECU By 1-7 points

24.3%

ECU By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
76
BUFFALO
85
EAST CAROLINA
Simulated Score
70
BUFFALO
74
EAST CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pirates Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pirates Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pirates (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Pirates (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Loss
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 14, 2025 BUF @ ECU 70 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +36.8% more
East Carolina: 3.4 vs Buffalo: 2.5
Rebounding (L5) +23.0% more
East Carolina: 34.3 vs Buffalo: 27.9
Turnovers (L5) +10.9% more
East Carolina: 12.6 vs Buffalo: 11.4
Free Throw % (L5) +15.5%
Buffalo: 78.5% vs East Carolina: 63.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 76.0 70
ECU Score 85.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.8 / 38.8 20.0 / 31.0
Assists 11.5 / 13.2 9.0 / 8.0
Blocks 3.4 / 2.5 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 39.7 / 50.2 37.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 63.0 / 78.5 77.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 34.3 / 27.9 40.0 / 40.0
Steals 7.0 / 8.3 12.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.6 / 11.4 7.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUF Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: +1.8
ECU
11-20-0 (35.5%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUF Advantage
18-12-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: +1.8
ECU
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
BUF
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +2.6
ECU
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ECU
BUF
ECU
BUF
ML
55% 17-14
45% 14-17
55% 17-14
45% 14-17
ATS
52% 16-15
55% 17-14
55% 17-14
45% 14-17
TTL
61% 19-12
48% 15-16
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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