Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Miami @ Texas A&M MIA @ TA&M

MIAMI

MIAMIMIA

10-2  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Dec 20 • 12:00 PM ET
Kyle Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS A&M

TEXAS A&MTA&M

11-1  |  Home

3
Key Game
Dylan Joyce
KEY GAME

Dylan Joyce

#94 | Punter
@
Noah Mikhail
KEY GAME

Noah Mikhail

#0 | Linebacker
Player
Dylan Joyce None-None
Noah Mikhail None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MIAMI
0%
📊
TEXAS A&M
100%
MIAMI --
TEXAS A&M --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
34.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Miami)
MiamiMIA (-3.5) 0 Texas A&MTA&M (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Miami Cover

84.1%

Texas A&M Cover

15.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MIA -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-6 points

12.9%

MIA By 7-13 points

19.0%

TA&M By 1-6 points

7.9%

TA&M By 7-13 points

4.7%

AI Model Projected Score
24
MIAMI
10
TEXAS A&M
Simulated Score
24
MIAMI
27
TEXAS A&M
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Miami Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Texas A&M Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Miami (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
B
Sim Texas A&M (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u48.0 Win
Proj Total: 34.0
B
Sim o48.0 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 20, 2025 MIA @ TA&M 10 - 3
Sep 9, 2023 TA&M @ MIA 33 - 48
Sep 17, 2022 MIA @ TA&M 9 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
Miami: 0.5 vs Texas A&M: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +12.9% more
Miami: 24.6 vs Texas A&M: 21.5
Turnovers (L5) +125.0% more
Texas A&M: 2.0 vs Miami: 0.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +31.2% more
Texas A&M: 182.9 vs Miami: 139.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 24.0 10
TA&M Score 10.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.5 / 24.6 21.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards 182.9 / 139.4 89.0 / 175.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 427.1 / 436.0 326.0 / 278.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 0.8 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 39.8 ATS +/-: +8.0
TA&M
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 39.8 ATS +/-: +8.0
TA&M
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.5
TA&M
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TA&M
MIA
TA&M
MIA
ML
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
TTL
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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