Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Tulane @ Ole Miss TULN @ MISS

TULANE

TULANETULN

11-2  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Dec 20 • 3:30 PM ET
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
View Odds Details →

OLE MISS

OLE MISSMISS

11-1  |  Home

41
Key Game
Geordan Guidry
KEY GAME

Geordan Guidry

#96 | Defensive Lineman
@
Oscar Bird
KEY GAME

Oscar Bird

#33 | Punter
Player
Geordan Guidry None-None
Oscar Bird None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TULANE
100%
📊
OLE MISS
0%
TULANE --
OLE MISS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
OLE MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Ole Miss)
TulaneTULN (-3.5) 0 Ole MissMISS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tulane Cover

15.9%

Ole Miss Cover

84.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MISS -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MISS)

TULN By 1-6 points

7.9%

TULN By 7-13 points

4.7%

MISS By 1-6 points

12.9%

MISS By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
20
TULANE
34
OLE MISS
Simulated Score
24
TULANE
31
OLE MISS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Ole Miss Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Ole Miss Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Ole Miss (+16.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
B
Sim Ole Miss (+16.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u57.5 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
B
Sim u57.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 20, 2025 TULN @ MISS 10 - 41
Sep 20, 2025 TULN @ MISS 10 - 45
Sep 9, 2023 MISS @ TULN 37 - 20
Sep 18, 2021 TULN @ MISS 21 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +28.8% more
Ole Miss: 518.1 vs Tulane: 402.2
First Downs (L5) +22.0% more
Ole Miss: 27.3 vs Tulane: 22.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +12.7% more
Ole Miss: 190.6 vs Tulane: 169.1
Turnovers (L5) +34.0% more
Tulane: 1.0 vs Ole Miss: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TULN Score 20.0 10
MISS Score 34.0 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 27.3 / 22.4 29.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 190.6 / 169.1 151.0 / 115.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.3 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 518.1 / 402.2 497.0 / 421.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.0 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
45%MONEY55%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TULN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -4.1
MISS Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -6.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TULN
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -4.1
MISS
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -6.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TULN
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -8.5
MISS
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +8.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MISS
TULN
MISS
TULN
ML
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
TTL
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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