Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Louisiana @ Delaware UL @ DEL

LOUISIANA

LOUISIANAUL

6-6  |  Road

13
FINAL
Wed, Dec 17 • 8:30 PM ET
Hancock Whitney Stadium
View Odds Details →

DELAWARE

DELAWAREDEL

6-6  |  Home

20
Key Game
Tony Sterner
KEY GAME

Tony Sterner

#95 | Place kicker
@
Kaeden Singleton
KEY GAME

Kaeden Singleton

#44 | Defensive End
Player
Tony Sterner None-None
Kaeden Singleton None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LOUISIANA
100%
📊
DELAWARE
0%
LOUISIANA --
DELAWARE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
23.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DELAWARE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Delaware)
LouisianaUL (-3.5) 0 DelawareDEL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Louisiana Cover

47.2%

Delaware Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DEL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEL)

UL By 1-6 points

16.1%

UL By 7-13 points

14.6%

DEL By 1-6 points

16.7%

DEL By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
11
LOUISIANA
12
DELAWARE
Simulated Score
20
LOUISIANA
27
DELAWARE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Delaware Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Delaware Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Delaware (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
B
Sim Delaware (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 23.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 17, 2025 UL @ DEL 13 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +75.0% more
Delaware: 1.7 vs Louisiana: 1.0
Total Yards (L5) +19.6% more
Delaware: 425.7 vs Louisiana: 356.0
First Downs (L5) +14.7% more
Delaware: 21.7 vs Louisiana: 19.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +34.6% more
Louisiana: 195.4 vs Delaware: 127.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UL Score 11.0 13
DEL Score 12.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.7 / 19.0 16.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 127.8 / 195.4 158.0 / 104.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.43 / 0.35
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 425.7 / 356.0 334.0 / 335.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.0 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UL Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +7.6
DEL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UL Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +7.6
DEL
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UL
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -3.7
DEL
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEL
UL
DEL
UL
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
40% 2-3
75% 3-1-1
40% 2-3
50% 2-2-1
TTL
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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