Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Demons @ Golden Bears NWST @ CAL

NORTHWESTERN STATE

DEMONSNWST

2-7  |  Road

70
FINAL
Sat, Dec 13 • 5:00 PM ET
Haas Pavilion
View Odds Details →

CALIFORNIA

GOLDEN BEARSCAL

9-1  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
DEMONS
100%
📊
GOLDEN BEARS
0%
DEMONS --
GOLDEN BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
82.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
CALIFORNIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (California)
DemonsNWST (-3.5) 0 Golden BearsCAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Demons Cover

11.5%

Golden Bears Cover

88.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CAL -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAL)

NWST By 1-7 points

8.0%

NWST By 8-14 points

2.2%

CAL By 1-7 points

20.1%

CAL By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
35
NORTHWESTERN STATE
47
CALIFORNIA
Simulated Score
62
NORTHWESTERN STATE
80
CALIFORNIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Golden Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Golden Bears (+19.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Golden Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u145.5 Loss
Proj Total: 82.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 13, 2025 NWST @ CAL 70 - 79
Dec 14, 2024 NWST @ CAL 66 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +150.0% more
California: 3.8 vs Northwestern State: 1.5
Rebounding (L5) +20.9% more
California: 36.0 vs Northwestern State: 29.8
Free Throw % (L5) +3.4%
California: 76.9% vs Northwestern State: 73.4%
Turnovers (L5) +42.5% more
Northwestern State: 14.5 vs California: 8.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NWST Score 35.0 70
CAL Score 47.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.6 / 36.4 46.0 / 46.0
Assists 12.0 / 11.5 17.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.8 / 1.5 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 44.8 / 44.6 45.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 76.9 / 73.4 81.0 / 87.0
Rebounding 36.0 / 29.8 34.0 / 27.0
Steals 6.6 / 6.6 8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 8.3 / 14.5 12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NWST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
CAL Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NWST Advantage
16-13-1 (55.2%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
CAL
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
NWST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
CAL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAL
NWST
CAL
NWST
ML
61% 20-13
68% 21-10
77% 24-7
77% 23-7
ATS
64% 21-12
68% 21-10
78% 25-7
77% 23-7
TTL
70% 23-10
39% 12-19
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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