Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Norse @ Knights NKU @ BELL

NORTHERN KENTUCKY

NORSENKU

8-3  |  Road

80
FINAL
Sat, Dec 13 • 2:00 PM ET
Knights Hall
View Odds Details →

BELLARMINE

KNIGHTSBELL

4-5  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
NORSE
100%
📊
KNIGHTS
0%
NORSE --
KNIGHTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
BELLARMINE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Bellarmine)
NorseNKU (-3.5) 0 KnightsBELL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Norse Cover

5.5%

Knights Cover

94.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BELL -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BELL)

NKU By 1-7 points

4.0%

NKU By 8-14 points

0.8%

BELL By 1-7 points

13.7%

BELL By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
66
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
82
BELLARMINE
Simulated Score
72
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
68
BELLARMINE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Knights Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Norse Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Knights (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Norse (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Loss
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 13, 2025 NKU @ BELL 80 - 76
Nov 30, 2024 BELL @ NKU 70 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +8.1%
Bellarmine: 54.3% vs Northern Kentucky: 46.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.3%
Bellarmine: 36.1% vs Northern Kentucky: 33.9%
Blocks (L5) +73.0% more
Northern Kentucky: 4.8 vs Bellarmine: 1.3
Rebounding (L5) +34.8% more
Northern Kentucky: 39.2 vs Bellarmine: 25.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NKU Score 66.0 80
BELL Score 82.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.1 / 33.9 39.0 / 32.0
Assists 15.2 / 14.2 19.0 / 17.0
Blocks 1.3 / 4.8 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 54.3 / 46.2 50.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 80.2 / 83.6 100.0 / 47.0
Rebounding 25.6 / 39.2 32.0 / 32.0
Steals 8.3 / 7.7 4.0 / 14.0
Turnovers 10.6 / 14.0 18.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NKU Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 5.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
BELL
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NKU
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 5.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
BELL Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
NKU
21-10-0
O: 67.7% / U: 32.3% Total +/-: +5.4
BELL
20-10-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +9.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BELL
NKU
BELL
NKU
ML
72% 23-9
53% 18-16
94% 29-2
65% 22-12
ATS
72% 23-9
56% 19-15
94% 29-2
65% 22-12
TTL
50% 16-16
68% 23-11
100% 31-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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