Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Highlanders @ Cougars UCR @ BYU

UC RIVERSIDE

HIGHLANDERSUCR

5-6  |  Road

53
FINAL
Sat, Dec 13 • 9:00 PM ET
Marriott Center
View Odds Details →

BYU

COUGARSBYU

9-1  |  Home

100
AI Model Win Probability
HIGHLANDERS
100%
📊
COUGARS
0%
HIGHLANDERS --
COUGARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
BYU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (BYU)
HighlandersUCR (-3.5) 0 CougarsBYU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Highlanders Cover

8.1%

Cougars Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BYU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BYU)

UCR By 1-7 points

5.8%

UCR By 8-14 points

1.4%

BYU By 1-7 points

16.9%

BYU By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
74
UC RIVERSIDE
88
BYU
Simulated Score
65
UC RIVERSIDE
81
BYU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cougars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cougars Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cougars (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Cougars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Win
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 13, 2025 UCR @ BYU 53 - 100
Nov 8, 2024 UCR @ BYU 80 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +131.3% more
BYU: 9.1 vs UC Riverside: 3.9
Blocks (L5) +47.6% more
BYU: 5.5 vs UC Riverside: 3.7
Assists (L5) +46.6% more
BYU: 14.8 vs UC Riverside: 10.1
Rebounding (L5) +12.0% more
BYU: 38.0 vs UC Riverside: 33.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCR Score 74.0 53
BYU Score 88.0 100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.4 / 28.2 47.0 / 32.0
Assists 14.8 / 10.1 22.0 / 12.0
Blocks 5.5 / 3.7 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 47.3 / 47.0 59.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 80.5 / 70.0 50.0 / 20.0
Rebounding 38.0 / 33.9 47.0 / 30.0
Steals 9.1 / 3.9 11.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.3 / 10.0 10.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCR
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
BYU Advantage
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCR Advantage
14-14-2 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
BYU
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UCR
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +1.3
BYU
17-18-0
O: 48.6% / U: 51.4% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BYU
UCR
BYU
UCR
ML
60% 21-14
66% 21-11
72% 23-9
75% 24-8
ATS
54% 19-16
59% 19-13
72% 23-9
75% 24-8
TTL
69% 24-11
66% 21-11
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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