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TENNESSEE STATE

TIGERSTNST

5-4  |  Road

63
FINAL
Sat, Dec 13 • 9:30 PM ET
Lee's Family Forum
View Odds Details →

UNLV

REBELSUNLV

4-5  |  Home

60
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
REBELS
0%
TIGERS --
REBELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
UNLV
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (UNLV)
TigersTNST (-3.5) 0 RebelsUNLV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

42.1%

Rebels Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNLV -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNLV)

TNST By 1-7 points

23.0%

TNST By 8-14 points

12.2%

UNLV By 1-7 points

26.8%

UNLV By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
69
TENNESSEE STATE
71
UNLV
Simulated Score
65
TENNESSEE STATE
78
UNLV
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rebels Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rebels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rebels (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Rebels (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 13, 2025 TNST @ UNLV 63 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +86.8% more
UNLV: 4.0 vs Tennessee State: 2.1
Assists (L5) +20.4% more
UNLV: 12.6 vs Tennessee State: 10.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.7%
UNLV: 28.2% vs Tennessee State: 21.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.5%
UNLV: 44.1% vs Tennessee State: 39.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TNST Score 69.0 63
UNLV Score 71.0 60
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.2 / 21.5 20.0 / 13.0
Assists 12.6 / 10.5 7.0 / 12.0
Blocks 4.0 / 2.1 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.1 / 39.6 37.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 61.9 / 73.1 59.0 / 38.0
Rebounding 34.8 / 39.9 36.0 / 39.0
Steals 8.3 / 10.5 12.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 13.6 18.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TNST Advantage
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
UNLV
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TNST Advantage
18-11-1 (62.1%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
UNLV
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
TNST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +2.3
UNLV
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNLV
TNST
UNLV
TNST
ML
50% 17-17
52% 16-15
59% 20-14
63% 17-10
ATS
65% 22-12
68% 21-10
59% 20-14
64% 18-10
TTL
62% 21-13
52% 16-15
100% 34-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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