Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Spartans @ Tar Heels UPST @ UNC

SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE

SPARTANSUPST

6-5  |  Road

62
FINAL
Sat, Dec 13 • 2:00 PM ET
Dean E. Smith Center
View Odds Details →

NORTH CAROLINA

TAR HEELSUNC

8-1  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
100%
📊
TAR HEELS
0%
SPARTANS --
TAR HEELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (North Carolina)
SpartansUPST (-3.5) 0 Tar HeelsUNC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

4.5%

Tar Heels Cover

95.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNC -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNC)

UPST By 1-7 points

3.3%

UPST By 8-14 points

0.6%

UNC By 1-7 points

12.2%

UNC By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
70
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
87
NORTH CAROLINA
Simulated Score
62
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
85
NORTH CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tar Heels Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tar Heels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tar Heels (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Tar Heels (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Loss
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 13, 2025 UPST @ UNC 62 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +11.0% more
North Carolina: 14.3 vs South Carolina Upstate: 12.9
Field Goal % (L5) +1.5%
North Carolina: 45.0% vs South Carolina Upstate: 43.5%
Blocks (L5) +36.3% more
South Carolina Upstate: 5.5 vs North Carolina: 3.5
Steals (L5) +26.4% more
South Carolina Upstate: 5.5 vs North Carolina: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UPST Score 70.0 62
UNC Score 87.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.9 / 33.1 43.0 / 37.0
Assists 14.3 / 12.9 20.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.5 / 5.5 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.0 / 43.5 51.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 68.3 / 67.4 64.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 41.6 / 40.1 37.0 / 34.0
Steals 4.1 / 5.5 5.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 10.4 / 12.1 6.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UPST
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.6
UNC Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UPST
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.6
UNC Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UPST
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -3.5
UNC
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNC
UPST
UNC
UPST
ML
76% 25-8
61% 19-12
69% 22-10
83% 25-5
ATS
73% 24-9
61% 19-12
69% 22-10
83% 25-5
TTL
55% 18-15
52% 16-15
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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