WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
18-9-4 | Road
1
WINNIPEG
JETSWPG
14-15-1 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Connor Hellebuyck
#37 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 5.01 | 0.857 | -- |
| Connor Hellebuyck | None-None | 1.00 | 0.960 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
5.01
GAA
Ldr 1.00
0.857
Save %
Ldr 0.960
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
0%
JETS
100%
CAPITALS
--
JETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around WSH -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1 goal
12.1%
WSH By 2-3 goals
37.2%
WPG By 1 goal
2.8%
WPG By 2-3 goals
1.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Winnipeg
1
WINNIPEG
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Winnipeg
4
WINNIPEG
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Capitals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jets
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Capitals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -3.0
D
Sim
Jets (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.0
Push
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 13, 2025
WSH @ WPG
1 - 5
Nov 26, 2025
WPG @ WSH
3 - 4
Mar 25, 2025
WSH @ WPG
2 - 3
Feb 1, 2025
WPG @ WSH
5 - 4
Mar 24, 2024
WPG @ WSH
0 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+28.8% more
Washington: 17.4
vs
Winnipeg: 12.4
Hits (L5)
+56.3% more
Winnipeg: 28.8
vs
Washington: 18.4
Takeaways (L5)
+28.6% more
Winnipeg: 5.0
vs
Washington: 3.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
4.0
1
WPG Score
1.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
12.4 / 17.4
12.0 / 16.0
Faceoff %
45.9 / 44.9
43.6 / 56.4
Hits
28.8 / 18.4
23.0 / 20.0
Power Play %
9.8 / 11.2
33.3 / 20.0
Shots on Goal
27.6 / 28.3
35.0 / 25.0
Takeaways
5.0 / 3.9
6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WPG
WSH
WPG
WSH
ML
50%
2-2
100%
3-0
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
ATS
25%
1-3
100%
3-0
100%
4-0
67%
2-1
TTL
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
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