EDMONTON
OILERSEDM
14-11-6 | Road
6
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
14-11-5 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Tristan Jarry
#35 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Artur Akhtyamov
#70 | G| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry | None-None | 3.00 | 0.893 | -- |
| Artur Akhtyamov | None-None | 0.00 | 1.000 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.00
GAA
Ldr 0.00
0.893
Save %
Ldr 1.000
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
OILERS
0%
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
OILERS
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TOR +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
EDM By 1 goal
19.7%
EDM By 2-3 goals
29.6%
TOR By 1 goal
12.1%
TOR By 2-3 goals
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Edmonton
3
EDMONTON
Toronto
2
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Edmonton
2
EDMONTON
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Oilers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 3, 2026
TOR @ EDM
5 - 2
Dec 13, 2025
EDM @ TOR
6 - 3
Feb 1, 2025
TOR @ EDM
4 - 3
Nov 16, 2024
EDM @ TOR
3 - 4
Mar 23, 2024
EDM @ TOR
3 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+31.4%
Edmonton: 44.5%
vs
Toronto: 13.1%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+9.0% more
Edmonton: 29.2
vs
Toronto: 26.6
Blocked Shots (L5)
+8.5% more
Edmonton: 16.3
vs
Toronto: 14.9
Takeaways (L5)
+96.8% more
Toronto: 7.4
vs
Edmonton: 3.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
EDM Score
3.0
6
TOR Score
2.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.9 / 16.3
15.0 / 10.0
Faceoff %
59.3 / 55.4
47.2 / 52.8
Hits
21.3 / 19.4
25.0 / 17.0
Power Play %
1311.0 / 4454.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
26.6 / 29.2
28.0 / 37.0
Takeaways
7.4 / 3.8
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
EDM
TOR
EDM
ML
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
ATS
0%
0-4
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
TTL
100%
4-0
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
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