Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Leathernecks @ Fighting Hawks WIU @ UND

WESTERN ILLINOIS

LEATHERNECKSWIU

3-7  |  Road

69
FINAL
Sat, Dec 13 • 2:00 PM ET
Betty Engelstad Sioux Center
View Odds Details →

NORTH DAKOTA

FIGHTING HAWKSUND

4-8  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
LEATHERNECKS
100%
📊
FIGHTING HAWKS
0%
LEATHERNECKS --
FIGHTING HAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
187.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
NORTH DAKOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (North Dakota)
LeathernecksWIU (-3.5) 0 Fighting HawksUND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Leathernecks Cover

38.2%

Fighting Hawks Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UND -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UND)

WIU By 1-7 points

21.6%

WIU By 8-14 points

10.7%

UND By 1-7 points

27.2%

UND By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
92
WESTERN ILLINOIS
95
NORTH DAKOTA
Simulated Score
68
WESTERN ILLINOIS
72
NORTH DAKOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Fighting Hawks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Fighting Hawks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Fighting Hawks (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Fighting Hawks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.5 Loss
Proj Total: 187.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 13, 2025 WIU @ UND 69 - 66
Nov 23, 2025 UND @ WIU 78 - 69
Feb 23, 2023 WIU @ UND 81 - 70
Jan 23, 2023 UND @ WIU 80 - 92
Feb 12, 2022 UND @ WIU 68 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +108.9% more
North Dakota: 11.6 vs Western Illinois: 5.5
Blocks (L5) +62.9% more
North Dakota: 1.9 vs Western Illinois: 1.2
Assists (L5) +35.6% more
North Dakota: 12.8 vs Western Illinois: 9.4
Turnovers (L5) +13.0% more
North Dakota: 12.5 vs Western Illinois: 11.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WIU Score 92.0 69
UND Score 95.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.0 / 28.5 21.0 / 16.0
Assists 12.8 / 9.4 10.0 / 9.0
Blocks 1.9 / 1.2 10.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 42.1 / 43.7 38.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 71.2 / 67.3 72.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 36.9 / 36.9 39.0 / 51.0
Steals 11.6 / 5.5 4.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 12.5 / 11.1 17.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WIU
5-26-0 (16.1%)
Margin: -11.9 ATS +/-: -5.3
UND Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WIU
11-17-0 (39.3%)
Margin: -11.9 ATS +/-: -5.3
UND Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
WIU
13-15-0
O: 46.4% / U: 53.6% Total +/-: -0.1
UND
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UND
WIU
UND
WIU
ML
44% 15-19
45% 14-17
50% 17-17
61% 19-12
ATS
50% 17-17
52% 16-15
50% 17-17
61% 19-12
TTL
65% 22-12
45% 14-17
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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