SMU
MUSTANGSSMU
9-2 | Road
77
LSU
TIGERSLSU
9-1 | Home
89
AI Model Win Probability
MUSTANGS
0%
TIGERS
100%
MUSTANGS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
SMU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (SMU)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SMU -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMU)
SMU By 1-7 points
24.3%
SMU By 8-14 points
26.8%
LSU By 1-7 points
12.2%
LSU By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
SMU
73
SMU
LSU
64
LSU
Simulated Score
SMU
70
SMU
LSU
75
LSU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mustangs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mustangs (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u150.5
Loss
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 13, 2025
SMU @ LSU
77 - 89
Dec 14, 2024
LSU @ SMU
64 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+27.5% more
SMU: 16.9
vs
LSU: 12.3
Turnovers (L5)
+12.5% more
SMU: 11.9
vs
LSU: 10.4
Steals (L5)
+10.2% more
SMU: 7.4
vs
LSU: 6.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.7%
SMU: 78.9%
vs
LSU: 73.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SMU Score
73.0
77
LSU Score
64.0
89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
24.3 / 25.9
47.0 / 37.0
Assists
12.3 / 16.9
17.0 / 10.0
Blocks
3.9 / 3.4
4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
44.9 / 46.5
62.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
73.3 / 78.9
83.0 / 59.0
Rebounding
39.1 / 40.4
31.0 / 29.0
Steals
6.7 / 7.4
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
10.4 / 11.9
12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SMU
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
LSU
--
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SMU
Advantage
14-19-1
(42.4%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
LSU
--
⚖️ Over/Under
SMU
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4%
Total +/-: +2.5
LSU
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LSU
SMU
LSU
SMU
ML
62%
20-12
59%
20-14
62%
20-12
73%
24-9
ATS
66%
21-11
62%
21-13
62%
20-12
73%
24-9
TTL
72%
23-9
56%
19-15
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
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