MEMPHIS
TIGERSMEM
4-4 | Road
73
LOUISVILLE
CARDINALSLOU
8-1 | Home
99
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
CARDINALS
0%
TIGERS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-50.0
LOUISVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +50.0 points (Louisville)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LOU -50.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LOU)
MEM By 1-7 points
0.0%
MEM By 8-14 points
0.0%
LOU By 1-7 points
0.0%
LOU By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Memphis
57
MEMPHIS
Louisville
107
LOUISVILLE
Simulated Score
Memphis
73
MEMPHIS
Louisville
76
LOUISVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (-4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -50.0
D
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o150.5
Win
Proj Total: 164.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 13, 2025
MEM @ LOU
73 - 99
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+15.4% more
Louisville: 16.7
vs
Memphis: 14.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.0%
Louisville: 80.7%
vs
Memphis: 72.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.3%
Louisville: 36.0%
vs
Memphis: 29.7%
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.9%
Louisville: 45.3%
vs
Memphis: 43.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MEM Score
57.0
73
LOU Score
107.0
99
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.0 / 29.7
51.0 / 27.0
Assists
16.7 / 14.5
24.0 / 8.0
Blocks
4.2 / 5.3
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
45.3 / 43.5
56.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
80.7 / 72.7
84.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
40.7 / 39.9
34.0 / 33.0
Steals
6.8 / 8.3
4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
10.7 / 12.4
13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-: -2.9
LOU
Advantage
24-11-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 11.7
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-: -2.9
LOU
Advantage
17-18-0
(48.6%)
Margin: 11.7
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.8
LOU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LOU
MEM
LOU
MEM
ML
63%
22-13
62%
20-12
71%
24-10
68%
21-10
ATS
71%
25-10
62%
20-12
71%
24-10
68%
21-10
TTL
63%
22-13
66%
21-11
100%
34-0
100%
31-0
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