ARKANSAS STATE
RED WOLVESARST
7-3 | Road
76
RICE
OWLSRICE
4-6 | Home
77
AI Model Win Probability
RED WOLVES
0%
OWLS
100%
RED WOLVES
--
OWLS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
ARKANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Arkansas State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ARST -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARST)
ARST By 1-7 points
6.8%
ARST By 8-14 points
16.9%
RICE By 1-7 points
1.4%
RICE By 8-14 points
0.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Arkansas State
87
ARKANSAS STATE
Rice
66
RICE
Simulated Score
Arkansas State
68
ARKANSAS STATE
Rice
73
RICE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Wolves
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Owls
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Red Wolves (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim
Owls (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o150.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 13, 2025
ARST @ RICE
76 - 77
Nov 30, 2024
ARST @ RICE
67 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+29.5% more
Arkansas State: 15.3
vs
Rice: 10.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.0%
Arkansas State: 85.2%
vs
Rice: 74.2%
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.7%
Arkansas State: 45.4%
vs
Rice: 43.6%
Blocks (L5)
+67.6% more
Rice: 5.6
vs
Arkansas State: 3.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARST Score
87.0
76
RICE Score
66.0
77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.0 / 30.6
42.0 / 22.0
Assists
10.8 / 15.3
13.0 / 11.0
Blocks
5.6 / 3.4
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
43.6 / 45.4
41.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
74.2 / 85.2
65.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
38.3 / 41.3
37.0 / 43.0
Steals
7.2 / 7.4
8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
13.4 / 13.8
7.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARST
Advantage
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
RICE
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARST
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
RICE
Advantage
16-13-0
(55.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ARST
15-14-1
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +2.5
RICE
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4%
Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RICE
ARST
RICE
ARST
ML
53%
16-14
48%
15-16
53%
16-14
53%
16-14
ATS
60%
18-12
58%
18-13
53%
16-14
53%
16-14
TTL
77%
23-7
61%
19-12
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
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