Home / NBA Projections NBA / Timberwolves @ Warriors MIN @ GS

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

15-9  |  Road

127
FINAL
Fri, Dec 12 • 10:00 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

13-12  |  Home

120
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
📊
WARRIORS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
243.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (Minnesota)
TimberwolvesMIN (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Timberwolves Cover

98.9%

Warriors Cover

1.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIN -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

MIN By 1-7 points

4.8%

MIN By 8-14 points

13.7%

GS By 1-7 points

0.8%

GS By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
133
MINNESOTA
110
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
113
MINNESOTA
118
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Warriors Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim Warriors (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o228.5 Win
Proj Total: 243.0
D
Sim u228.5 Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 13, 2026 MIN @ GS 127 - 117
Jan 26, 2026 GS @ MIN 83 - 108
Jan 25, 2026 GS @ MIN 111 - 85
Dec 12, 2025 MIN @ GS 127 - 120
May 14, 2025 GS @ MIN 110 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +3.8%
Minnesota: 48.2% vs Golden State: 44.4%
Free Throw % (L5) +2.6%
Minnesota: 79.6% vs Golden State: 76.9%
Steals (L5) +64.7% more
Golden State: 9.4 vs Minnesota: 5.7
Rebounding (L5) +10.3% more
Golden State: 46.9 vs Minnesota: 42.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 133.0 127
GS Score 110.0 120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.6 / 36.3 33.0 / 35.0
Assists 27.0 / 26.8 27.0 / 30.0
Blocks 4.1 / 3.9 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.4 / 48.2 46.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 76.9 / 79.6 77.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 46.9 / 42.5 42.0 / 44.0
Steals 9.4 / 5.7 7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 15.0 / 14.9 13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
MIN
GS
MIN
ML
55% 95-79
54% 63-53
58% 49-35
54% 50-43
ATS
58% 101-73
58% 67-49
58% 49-35
54% 50-43
TTL
77% 134-40
63% 72-43-1
100% 84-0
100% 93-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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