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ALABAMA STATE

HORNETSALST

3-6  |  Road

77
FINAL
Thu, Dec 11 • 8:00 PM ET
Mizzou Arena
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI

TIGERSMIZ

8-2  |  Home

85
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
📊
TIGERS
0%
HORNETS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
MISSOURI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Missouri)
HornetsALST (-3.5) 0 TigersMIZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

27.4%

Tigers Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIZ -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIZ)

ALST By 1-7 points

16.9%

ALST By 8-14 points

6.8%

MIZ By 1-7 points

26.8%

MIZ By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
75
ALABAMA STATE
81
MISSOURI
Simulated Score
60
ALABAMA STATE
90
MISSOURI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -30.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 11, 2025 ALST @ MIZ 77 - 85
Dec 30, 2024 ALST @ MIZ 65 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +11.8% more
Missouri: 8.2 vs Alabama State: 7.4
Assists (L5) +11.8% more
Missouri: 14.1 vs Alabama State: 12.7
Rebounding (L5) +11.2% more
Missouri: 37.8 vs Alabama State: 34.0
Blocks (L5) +31.8% more
Alabama State: 4.3 vs Missouri: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALST Score 75.0 77
MIZ Score 81.0 85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.3 / 37.9 50.0 / 50.0
Assists 14.1 / 12.7 16.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.0 / 4.3 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.7 / 45.4 65.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 66.9 / 70.0 69.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 37.8 / 34.0 28.0 / 24.0
Steals 8.2 / 7.4 3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 13.2 11.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
MIZ Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALST
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
MIZ Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ALST
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -1.6
MIZ
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIZ
ALST
MIZ
ALST
ML
61% 20-13
65% 20-11
69% 22-10
76% 19-6
ATS
70% 23-10
65% 20-11
69% 22-10
76% 19-6
TTL
79% 26-7
52% 16-15
100% 32-0
100% 25-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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