Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mountaineers @ Pirates APP @ ECU

APP STATE

MOUNTAINEERSAPP

6-5  |  Road

67
FINAL
Thu, Dec 11 • 7:00 PM ET
Minges Coliseum
View Odds Details →

EAST CAROLINA

PIRATESECU

3-7  |  Home

54
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
📊
PIRATES
0%
MOUNTAINEERS --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
121.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
EAST CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (East Carolina)
MountaineersAPP (-3.5) 0 PiratesECU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountaineers Cover

6.7%

Pirates Cover

93.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ECU -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ECU)

APP By 1-7 points

4.8%

APP By 8-14 points

1.1%

ECU By 1-7 points

15.3%

ECU By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
53
APP STATE
68
EAST CAROLINA
Simulated Score
68
APP STATE
72
EAST CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pirates Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pirates Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pirates (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Pirates (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 121.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 11, 2025 APP @ ECU 67 - 54
Nov 12, 2019 ECU @ APP 62 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +45.6% more
East Carolina: 14.5 vs App State: 9.9
Steals (L5) +30.3% more
East Carolina: 6.0 vs App State: 4.6
Free Throw % (L5) +14.0%
East Carolina: 69.6% vs App State: 55.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.6%
East Carolina: 31.7% vs App State: 28.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
APP Score 53.0 67
ECU Score 68.0 54
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.7 / 28.0 20.0 / 24.0
Assists 11.2 / 17.9 12.0 / 9.0
Blocks 2.6 / 3.5 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 42.0 / 47.4 35.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 69.6 / 55.5 50.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 35.5 / 47.3 32.0 / 41.0
Steals 6.0 / 4.6 9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 14.5 / 9.9 9.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APP Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
ECU
11-20-0 (35.5%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APP Advantage
16-13-1 (55.2%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
ECU
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
APP
12-18-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.2
ECU
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ECU
APP
ECU
APP
ML
55% 17-14
62% 20-12
55% 17-14
59% 19-13
ATS
52% 16-15
59% 19-13
55% 17-14
59% 19-13
TTL
61% 19-12
69% 22-10
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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