Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Arkansas St @ App State ARST @ APP

ARKANSAS STATE

ARKANSAS STARST

5-6  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 2:30 PM ET
Kidd Brewer Stadium
View Odds Details →

APP STATE

APP STATEAPP

5-6  |  Home

29
Key Game
Tony Carter
KEY GAME

Tony Carter

#10 | Defensive End
@
Aiden Benton
KEY GAME

Aiden Benton

#33 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Tony Carter None-None
Aiden Benton None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARKANSAS ST
0%
📊
APP STATE
100%
ARKANSAS ST --
APP STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
ARKANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Arkansas State)
Arkansas StARST (-3.5) 0 App StateAPP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Arkansas St Cover

95.7%

App State Cover

4.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ARST -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARST)

ARST By 1-6 points

5.9%

ARST By 7-13 points

12.1%

APP By 1-6 points

2.5%

APP By 7-13 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
38
ARKANSAS STATE
14
APP STATE
Simulated Score
17
ARKANSAS STATE
34
APP STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Arkansas St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim App State Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Arkansas St (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
C
Sim App State (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 ARST @ APP 30 - 29
Nov 6, 2021 APP @ ARST 48 - 14
Oct 22, 2020 ARST @ APP 17 - 45
Oct 9, 2018 APP @ ARST 35 - 9
Nov 5, 2015 ARST @ APP 40 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +69.9% more
Arkansas State: 2.7 vs App State: 0.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +29.6% more
Arkansas State: 131.4 vs App State: 92.6
Total Yards (L5) +23.4% more
Arkansas State: 395.5 vs App State: 303.1
First Downs (L5) +22.4% more
Arkansas State: 23.7 vs App State: 18.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARST Score 38.0 30
APP Score 14.0 29
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.4 / 23.7 23.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 92.6 / 131.4 182.0 / 85.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.31 / 0.41
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 303.1 / 395.5 453.0 / 448.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 2.7 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
APP Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.5 ATS +/-: +8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
APP Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.5 ATS +/-: +8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ARST
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -6.3
APP
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
APP
ARST
APP
ARST
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
ATS
0% 0-4
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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