BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
15-9 | Road
101
MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
10-15 | Home
116
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
100%
BUCKS
0%
CELTICS
--
BUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
171.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIL -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
BOS By 1-7 points
1.4%
BOS By 8-14 points
0.2%
MIL By 1-7 points
6.8%
MIL By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
75
BOSTON
Milwaukee
96
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Boston
115
BOSTON
Milwaukee
118
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bucks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bucks (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim
Bucks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u223.0
Win
Proj Total: 171.0
D
Sim
u223.0
Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 3, 2026
BOS @ MIL
133 - 101
Mar 2, 2026
BOS @ MIL
108 - 81
Feb 1, 2026
MIL @ BOS
79 - 107
Dec 11, 2025
BOS @ MIL
101 - 116
Dec 6, 2024
MIL @ BOS
105 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+20.1% more
Milwaukee: 14.9
vs
Boston: 12.4
Blocks (L5)
+36.8% more
Boston: 6.7
vs
Milwaukee: 4.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.8%
Boston: 85.5%
vs
Milwaukee: 73.7%
Rebounding (L5)
+9.3% more
Boston: 41.4
vs
Milwaukee: 37.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
75.0
101
MIL Score
96.0
116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.4 / 43.2
45.0 / 29.0
Assists
26.3 / 26.4
28.0 / 18.0
Blocks
4.2 / 6.7
5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
47.3 / 51.5
58.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
73.7 / 85.5
79.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
37.6 / 41.4
40.0 / 39.0
Steals
8.8 / 9.0
5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
14.9 / 12.4
16.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
BOS
MIL
BOS
ML
64%
61-35
57%
61-46
60%
49-32
53%
47-41
ATS
68%
65-31
59%
61-43-3
60%
49-32
53%
47-41
TTL
55%
53-43
56%
60-47
100%
81-0
100%
88-0
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