Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Warriors @ Tigers MRMK @ PRIN

MERRIMACK

WARRIORSMRMK

6-6  |  Road

59
FINAL
Wed, Dec 10 • 5:00 PM ET
Jadwin Gymnasium
View Odds Details →

PRINCETON

TIGERSPRIN

3-10  |  Home

56
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
📊
TIGERS
0%
WARRIORS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
PRINCETON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Princeton)
WarriorsMRMK (-3.5) 0 TigersPRIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

30.9%

Tigers Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PRIN -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PRIN)

MRMK By 1-7 points

18.6%

MRMK By 8-14 points

8.0%

PRIN By 1-7 points

27.2%

PRIN By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
67
MERRIMACK
72
PRINCETON
Simulated Score
65
MERRIMACK
75
PRINCETON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o135.5 Loss
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim u135.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 10, 2025 MRMK @ PRIN 59 - 56
Nov 17, 2024 PRIN @ MRMK 68 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +24.3% more
Princeton: 11.2 vs Merrimack: 9.0
Rebounding (L5) +20.9% more
Princeton: 31.2 vs Merrimack: 25.8
Blocks (L5) +83.0% more
Merrimack: 6.2 vs Princeton: 1.1
Steals (L5) +57.0% more
Merrimack: 9.1 vs Princeton: 3.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MRMK Score 67.0 59
PRIN Score 72.0 56
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.1 / 34.7 29.0 / 26.0
Assists 13.8 / 13.5 8.0 / 9.0
Blocks 1.1 / 6.2 2.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 41.1 / 42.7 30.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 69.5 / 75.5 81.0 / 90.0
Rebounding 31.2 / 25.8 45.0 / 26.0
Steals 3.9 / 9.1 4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 9.0 10.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
18%MONEY82%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRMK Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
PRIN
9-20-0 (31.0%)
Margin: -3.4 ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRMK Advantage
19-14-1 (57.6%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
PRIN
16-12-0 (57.1%)
Margin: -3.4 ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
MRMK
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7% Total +/-: -3.2
PRIN
13-15-0
O: 46.4% / U: 53.6% Total +/-: -2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PRIN
MRMK
PRIN
MRMK
ML
45% 13-16
47% 16-18
62% 18-11
65% 22-12
ATS
48% 14-15
53% 18-16
62% 18-11
65% 22-12
TTL
72% 21-8
62% 21-13
100% 29-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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