CHARLESTON
COUGARSCOFC
4-5 | Road
75
SOUTH FLORIDA
BULLSUSF
5-4 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
COUGARS
0%
BULLS
100%
COUGARS
--
BULLS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
126.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
CHARLESTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Charleston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around COFC -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COFC)
COFC By 1-7 points
13.7%
COFC By 8-14 points
24.3%
USF By 1-7 points
4.0%
USF By 8-14 points
0.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Charleston
71
CHARLESTON
South Florida
55
SOUTH FLORIDA
Simulated Score
Charleston
68
CHARLESTON
South Florida
72
SOUTH FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cougars
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulls
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cougars (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Bulls (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 126.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 10, 2025
COFC @ USF
75 - 81
Nov 8, 2024
USF @ COFC
71 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+54.5% more
South Florida: 8.5
vs
Charleston: 5.5
Assists (L5)
+52.8% more
South Florida: 15.6
vs
Charleston: 10.2
Turnovers (L5)
+38.5% more
South Florida: 13.1
vs
Charleston: 9.5
Blocks (L5)
+12.9% more
South Florida: 3.7
vs
Charleston: 3.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
COFC Score
71.0
75
USF Score
55.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.9 / 28.8
28.0 / 32.0
Assists
15.6 / 10.2
15.0 / 10.0
Blocks
3.7 / 3.3
8.0 / 10.0
Field Goal %
42.1 / 39.0
41.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
72.5 / 72.9
70.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
39.5 / 37.4
47.0 / 42.0
Steals
8.5 / 5.5
10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
13.1 / 9.5
8.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COFC
21-11-0
(65.6%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
USF
Advantage
25-9-0
(73.5%)
Margin: 11.7
ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COFC
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
USF
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 11.7
ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
COFC
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: -1.8
USF
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USF
COFC
USF
COFC
ML
61%
20-13
66%
19-10
52%
16-15
62%
18-11
ATS
61%
20-13
59%
17-12
52%
16-15
62%
18-11
TTL
52%
17-16
68%
19-9-1
100%
31-0
100%
29-0
Contextual Game News
K-State vs Houston: Week 6 Showdown with Big 12 Title Implicatio…
Houston Cougars Set for Road Test Against Kansas State in Big 12…
Houston Cougars Erase 17-Point Deficit to Stun UCF in Space Game
Houston Cougars Set for Nationally Televised Road Battle at Kans…
Chicago Bulls Open Training Camp with New Regime and Roster Batt…