Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hilltoppers @ Thundering Herd WKU @ MRSH

WESTERN KENTUCKY

HILLTOPPERSWKU

6-2  |  Road

61
FINAL
Wed, Dec 10 • 7:00 PM ET
Cam Henderson Center
View Odds Details →

MARSHALL

THUNDERING HERDMRSH

5-4  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
HILLTOPPERS
100%
📊
THUNDERING HERD
0%
HILLTOPPERS --
THUNDERING HERD --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
MARSHALL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (Marshall)
HilltoppersWKU (-3.5) 0 Thundering HerdMRSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hilltoppers Cover

0.5%

Thundering Herd Cover

99.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MRSH -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRSH)

WKU By 1-7 points

0.4%

WKU By 8-14 points

0.0%

MRSH By 1-7 points

2.7%

MRSH By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
56
WESTERN KENTUCKY
82
MARSHALL
Simulated Score
72
WESTERN KENTUCKY
75
MARSHALL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thundering Herd Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thundering Herd Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thundering Herd (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Sim Thundering Herd (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 10, 2025 WKU @ MRSH 61 - 77
Nov 30, 2024 MRSH @ WKU 82 - 90
Mar 5, 2022 MRSH @ WKU 69 - 78
Mar 2, 2022 WKU @ MRSH 86 - 72
Jan 17, 2021 WKU @ MRSH 69 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +71.3% more
Marshall: 4.8 vs Western Kentucky: 2.8
Assists (L5) +8.7% more
Marshall: 14.6 vs Western Kentucky: 13.4
Free Throw % (L5) +8.0%
Marshall: 81.5% vs Western Kentucky: 73.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.8%
Marshall: 45.0% vs Western Kentucky: 43.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WKU Score 56.0 61
MRSH Score 82.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.8 / 36.9 39.0 / 25.0
Assists 14.6 / 13.4 15.0 / 8.0
Blocks 4.8 / 2.8 9.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.0 / 43.2 43.0 / 31.0
Free Throw % 81.5 / 73.5 67.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 37.9 / 40.7 47.0 / 44.0
Steals 3.9 / 8.4 5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 12.6 8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
44%MONEY56%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WKU
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
MRSH Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WKU Advantage
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
MRSH
10-20-1 (33.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
WKU
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.2
MRSH
19-11-1
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7% Total +/-: +4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRSH
WKU
MRSH
WKU
ML
70% 21-9
56% 18-14
62% 18-11
66% 21-11
ATS
70% 21-9
53% 17-15
62% 18-11
66% 21-11
TTL
50% 15-15
56% 18-14
100% 29-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
WKU Men's Basketball Kicks Off Official Practices with Revamped …
wnky 1 week ago
Isaiah Marshall's Rocky Start: Kansas QB Shows Flashes but Seeks…
si 1 week, 1 day ago
Kansas QB Isaiah Marshall Reflects on First Collegiate Start Aft…
headtopics 1 month ago
Jayhawks' New QB-WR Duo Shines in Dominant Season-Opening Victory
si 1 month ago
WKU Athletics extends contract with Nike, BSN SPORTS
wnky 2 months, 1 week ago