BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
11-14-4 | Road
4
EDMONTON
OILERSEDM
13-11-5 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Alex Lyon
#34 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Alec Regula
#75 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon | None-None | 4.33 | 0.875 | -- |
| Alec Regula | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
4.33
GAA
--
0.875
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
100%
OILERS
0%
SABRES
--
OILERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
EDMONTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Edmonton)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around EDM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EDM)
BUF By 1 goal
12.1%
BUF By 2-3 goals
9.3%
EDM By 1 goal
19.7%
EDM By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Edmonton
4
EDMONTON
Simulated Score
Buffalo
4
BUFFALO
Edmonton
3
EDMONTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Oilers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Sabres
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Oilers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Sabres (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 9, 2025
BUF @ EDM
4 - 3
Nov 17, 2025
EDM @ BUF
1 - 5
Mar 10, 2025
EDM @ BUF
2 - 3
Jan 25, 2025
BUF @ EDM
2 - 3
Mar 21, 2024
BUF @ EDM
3 - 8
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+36.6% more
Edmonton: 14.2
vs
Buffalo: 10.4
Power Play % (L5)
+33.2%
Edmonton: 62.7%
vs
Buffalo: 29.5%
Faceoff % (L5)
+6.0%
Edmonton: 53.0%
vs
Buffalo: 47.0%
Takeaways (L5)
+34.1% more
Buffalo: 4.9
vs
Edmonton: 3.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
3.0
4
EDM Score
4.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.2 / 10.4
15.0 / 12.0
Faceoff %
53.0 / 47.0
61.8 / 38.2
Hits
16.4 / 19.0
17.0 / 14.0
Power Play %
62.7 / 29.5
0.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
28.9 / 31.2
30.0 / 28.0
Takeaways
3.2 / 4.9
3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EDM
BUF
EDM
BUF
ML
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
100%
3-0
TTL
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
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