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PENN STATE

NITTANY LIONSPSU

8-2  |  Road

72
FINAL
Tue, Dec 9 • 8:30 PM ET
Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

HOOSIERSIU

8-2  |  Home

113
AI Model Win Probability
NITTANY LIONS
100%
📊
HOOSIERS
0%
NITTANY LIONS --
HOOSIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
119.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Indiana)
Nittany LionsPSU (-3.5) 0 HoosiersIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nittany Lions Cover

38.2%

Hoosiers Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IU)

PSU By 1-7 points

21.6%

PSU By 8-14 points

10.7%

IU By 1-7 points

27.2%

IU By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
58
PENN STATE
61
INDIANA
Simulated Score
70
PENN STATE
75
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Hoosiers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hoosiers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hoosiers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Hoosiers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 119.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 9, 2025 PSU @ IU 72 - 113
Feb 26, 2025 PSU @ IU 78 - 83
Jan 5, 2025 IU @ PSU 77 - 71
Mar 14, 2024 PSU @ IU 59 - 61
Feb 24, 2024 IU @ PSU 74 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +12.0% more
Indiana: 10.3 vs Penn State: 9.2
Assists (L5) +11.0% more
Indiana: 16.9 vs Penn State: 15.2
Steals (L5) +40.7% more
Penn State: 10.2 vs Indiana: 6.0
Blocks (L5) +10.3% more
Penn State: 2.8 vs Indiana: 2.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PSU Score 58.0 72
IU Score 61.0 113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.9 / 39.1 55.0 / 31.0
Assists 16.9 / 15.2 30.0 / 6.0
Blocks 2.5 / 2.8 1.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 44.2 / 51.7 69.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 73.6 / 76.2 80.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 34.6 / 33.0 28.0 / 21.0
Steals 6.0 / 10.2 8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.3 / 9.2 10.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
IU Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
IU Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
PSU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +1.8
IU
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IU
PSU
IU
PSU
ML
66% 21-11
72% 23-9
71% 22-9
56% 18-14
ATS
53% 17-15
72% 23-9
71% 22-9
56% 18-14
TTL
56% 18-14
66% 21-11
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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