Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Fighting Illini @ Buckeyes ILL @ OSU

ILLINOIS

FIGHTING ILLINIILL

7-2  |  Road

88
FINAL
Tue, Dec 9 • 7:30 PM ET
Value City Arena
View Odds Details →

OHIO STATE

BUCKEYESOSU

7-1  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING ILLINI
0%
📊
BUCKEYES
100%
FIGHTING ILLINI --
BUCKEYES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-44.0
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +44.0 points (Illinois)
Fighting IlliniILL (-3.5) 0 BuckeyesOSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fighting Illini Cover

100.0%

Buckeyes Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ILL -44.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)

ILL By 1-7 points

0.0%

ILL By 8-14 points

0.1%

OSU By 1-7 points

0.0%

OSU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
103
ILLINOIS
59
OHIO STATE
Simulated Score
72
ILLINOIS
76
OHIO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Fighting Illini Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buckeyes Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Fighting Illini (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -44.0
D
Sim Buckeyes (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 9, 2025 ILL @ OSU 88 - 80
Feb 2, 2025 OSU @ ILL 79 - 87
Mar 15, 2024 OSU @ ILL 74 - 77
Jan 30, 2024 ILL @ OSU 87 - 75
Feb 26, 2023 ILL @ OSU 60 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +62.8% more
Illinois: 5.9 vs Ohio State: 2.2
Assists (L5) +30.0% more
Ohio State: 17.7 vs Illinois: 13.6
Steals (L5) +23.8% more
Ohio State: 5.3 vs Illinois: 4.3
Turnovers (L5) +23.7% more
Ohio State: 11.1 vs Illinois: 8.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ILL Score 103.0 88
OSU Score 59.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.0 / 31.3 32.0 / 41.0
Assists 17.7 / 13.6 11.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.2 / 5.9 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 52.1 / 45.6 46.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 75.0 / 74.2 71.0 / 91.0
Rebounding 35.7 / 37.8 30.0 / 37.0
Steals 5.3 / 4.3 3.0 / 0.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 8.9 6.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILL Advantage
28-9-0 (75.7%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
OSU
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILL Advantage
22-15-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
OSU
17-16-1 (51.5%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ILL
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5% Total +/-: -1.4
OSU
16-18-0
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OSU
ILL
OSU
ILL
ML
53% 18-16
65% 24-13
73% 24-9
57% 20-15
ATS
59% 20-14
70% 26-11
73% 24-9
57% 20-15
TTL
56% 19-15
57% 21-16
100% 33-0
100% 35-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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