TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
16-10-2 | Road
0
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
13-11-4 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Dennis Hildeby
#35 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Troy Stecher
#28 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Hildeby | None-None | 0.00 | 1.000 | 1 |
| Troy Stecher | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
0.00
GAA
--
1.000
Save %
--
1
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
100%
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
LIGHTNING
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TB By 1 goal
12.1%
TB By 2-3 goals
9.3%
TOR By 1 goal
19.7%
TOR By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
TB @ TOR
5 - 2
Feb 25, 2026
TOR @ TB
2 - 4
Dec 8, 2025
TB @ TOR
0 - 2
Apr 9, 2025
TOR @ TB
4 - 3
Jan 20, 2025
TB @ TOR
3 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+63.2% more
Toronto: 15.4
vs
Tampa Bay: 9.4
Hits (L5)
+41.0% more
Toronto: 23.8
vs
Tampa Bay: 16.8
Faceoff % (L5)
+9.0%
Toronto: 59.6%
vs
Tampa Bay: 50.6%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+23.6% more
Tampa Bay: 32.4
vs
Toronto: 24.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.0
0
TOR Score
4.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.4 / 9.4
14.0 / 8.0
Faceoff %
59.6 / 50.6
56.4 / 43.6
Hits
23.8 / 16.8
20.0 / 16.0
Power Play %
452.0 / 1168.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
24.8 / 32.4
25.0 / 29.0
Takeaways
5.2 / 5.3
8.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
TB
TOR
TB
ML
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
0%
0-4
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
TTL
100%
4-0
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
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