PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
13-10 | Road
108
MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
15-8 | Home
105
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
SUNS
--
TIMBERWOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
185.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
PHX By 1-7 points
0.0%
PHX By 8-14 points
0.0%
MIN By 1-7 points
0.3%
MIN By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
75
PHOENIX
Minnesota
110
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Phoenix
110
PHOENIX
Minnesota
115
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Timberwolves
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Timberwolves
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Timberwolves (-9)
Loss
Proj Spread: -35.0
D
Sim
Timberwolves (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u225.0
Win
Proj Total: 185.0
D
Sim
u225.0
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 17, 2026
PHX @ MIN
104 - 116
Dec 8, 2025
PHX @ MIN
108 - 105
Nov 21, 2025
MIN @ PHX
113 - 114
Mar 28, 2025
PHX @ MIN
109 - 124
Mar 2, 2025
MIN @ PHX
116 - 98
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+118.4% more
Minnesota: 5.4
vs
Phoenix: 2.5
Assists (L5)
+22.8% more
Minnesota: 27.2
vs
Phoenix: 22.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+12.9%
Minnesota: 84.4%
vs
Phoenix: 71.4%
Turnovers (L5)
+12.8% more
Minnesota: 14.8
vs
Phoenix: 13.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
75.0
108
MIN Score
110.0
105
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.4 / 29.8
26.0 / 36.0
Assists
27.2 / 22.2
26.0 / 26.0
Blocks
5.4 / 2.5
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
48.8 / 45.7
47.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
84.4 / 71.4
70.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
40.8 / 37.1
46.0 / 43.0
Steals
6.1 / 12.2
5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
14.8 / 13.2
15.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
MIN
Advantage
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
PHX
MIN
PHX
ML
54%
63-53
57%
60-45
54%
50-43
51%
45-43
ATS
58%
67-49
58%
59-43-3
54%
50-43
51%
45-43
TTL
63%
72-43-1
59%
61-42-2
100%
93-0
100%
88-0
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