Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rebels @ Cardinal UNLV @ STAN

UNLV

REBELSUNLV

4-5  |  Road

75
FINAL
Sun, Dec 7 • 4:00 PM ET
Maples Pavilion
View Odds Details →

STANFORD

CARDINALSTAN

7-2  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
REBELS
100%
📊
CARDINAL
0%
REBELS --
CARDINAL --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
81.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
STANFORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Stanford)
RebelsUNLV (-3.5) 0 CardinalSTAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rebels Cover

4.5%

Cardinal Cover

95.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around STAN -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STAN)

UNLV By 1-7 points

3.3%

UNLV By 8-14 points

0.6%

STAN By 1-7 points

12.2%

STAN By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
32
UNLV
49
STANFORD
Simulated Score
68
UNLV
72
STANFORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinal Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinal Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinal (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Cardinal (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 81.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 7, 2025 UNLV @ STAN 75 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +12.8% more
Stanford: 8.4 vs UNLV: 7.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.6%
Stanford: 37.9% vs UNLV: 27.3%
Free Throw % (L5) +8.8%
Stanford: 72.1% vs UNLV: 63.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.9%
Stanford: 44.1% vs UNLV: 42.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNLV Score 32.0 75
STAN Score 49.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.9 / 27.3 30.0 / 30.0
Assists 14.0 / 15.4 10.0 / 7.0
Blocks 3.3 / 3.9 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.1 / 42.2 38.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 72.1 / 63.3 63.0 / 59.0
Rebounding 34.8 / 35.2 46.0 / 34.0
Steals 8.4 / 7.5 11.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 9.3 / 10.4 16.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
10%MONEY90%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNLV
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
STAN Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNLV
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
STAN
16-16-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UNLV
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2% Total +/-: +3.3
STAN
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STAN
UNLV
STAN
UNLV
ML
48% 16-17
50% 17-17
50% 16-16
59% 20-14
ATS
48% 16-17
65% 22-12
50% 16-16
59% 20-14
TTL
55% 18-15
62% 21-13
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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