Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Aggies @ 49ers USU @ CLT

UTAH STATE

AGGIESUSU

7-1  |  Road

79
FINAL
Sun, Dec 7 • 2:00 PM ET
Halton Arena
View Odds Details →

CHARLOTTE

49ERSCLT

4-5  |  Home

53
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
100%
📊
49ERS
0%
AGGIES --
49ERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
160.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Charlotte)
AggiesUSU (-3.5) 0 49ersCLT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

5.5%

49ers Cover

94.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CLT -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLT)

USU By 1-7 points

4.0%

USU By 8-14 points

0.8%

CLT By 1-7 points

13.7%

CLT By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
72
UTAH STATE
88
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
68
UTAH STATE
72
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI 49ers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim 49ers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI 49ers (-10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim 49ers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o139.5 Loss
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 7, 2025 USU @ CLT 79 - 53
Nov 9, 2024 CLT @ USU 74 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +48.6% more
Utah State: 10.3 vs Charlotte: 5.3
Assists (L5) +24.5% more
Utah State: 16.0 vs Charlotte: 12.1
Blocks (L5) +11.6% more
Utah State: 3.5 vs Charlotte: 3.1
Rebounding (L5) +9.3% more
Utah State: 35.4 vs Charlotte: 32.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USU Score 72.0 79
CLT Score 88.0 53
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.8 / 35.3 22.0 / 24.0
Assists 12.1 / 16.0 8.0 / 17.0
Blocks 3.1 / 3.5 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 46.9 / 46.3 35.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 66.6 / 70.9 55.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 32.1 / 35.4 35.0 / 31.0
Steals 5.3 / 10.3 0.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 12.0 / 12.5 19.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
95%MONEY5%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USU Advantage
29-7-0 (80.6%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
CLT
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.1 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USU
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
CLT Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: -1.1 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
USU
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.9
CLT
19-13-1
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6% Total +/-: +3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLT
USU
CLT
USU
ML
62% 21-13
49% 17-18
67% 22-11
66% 21-11
ATS
68% 23-11
74% 26-9
67% 22-11
67% 22-11
TTL
65% 22-12
51% 18-17
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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