Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bruins @ Blue Raiders BEL @ MTSU

BELMONT

BRUINSBEL

8-1  |  Road

83
FINAL
Sun, Dec 7 • 4:30 PM ET
Murphy Center
View Odds Details →

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

BLUE RAIDERSMTSU

5-3  |  Home

62
AI Model Win Probability
BRUINS
0%
📊
BLUE RAIDERS
100%
BRUINS --
BLUE RAIDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
BELMONT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Belmont)
BruinsBEL (-3.5) 0 Blue RaidersMTSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bruins Cover

91.9%

Blue Raiders Cover

8.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BEL -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BEL)

BEL By 1-7 points

16.9%

BEL By 8-14 points

26.2%

MTSU By 1-7 points

5.8%

MTSU By 8-14 points

1.4%

AI Model Projected Score
76
BELMONT
62
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
68
BELMONT
72
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bruins Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Raiders Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bruins (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Blue Raiders (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 7, 2025 BEL @ MTSU 83 - 62
Dec 7, 2024 MTSU @ BEL 79 - 82
Dec 9, 2023 BEL @ MTSU 75 - 65
Dec 10, 2022 MTSU @ BEL 85 - 75
Nov 30, 2019 BEL @ MTSU 71 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +23.7% more
Belmont: 18.7 vs Middle Tennessee: 14.3
Steals (L5) +16.8% more
Belmont: 7.0 vs Middle Tennessee: 5.8
Turnovers (L5) +15.8% more
Belmont: 13.3 vs Middle Tennessee: 11.2
Rebounding (L5) +11.0% more
Belmont: 39.9 vs Middle Tennessee: 35.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BEL Score 76.0 83
MTSU Score 62.0 62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.6 / 39.4 21.0 / 43.0
Assists 14.3 / 18.7 10.0 / 21.0
Blocks 5.2 / 4.1 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 46.2 / 52.0 31.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 70.7 / 59.1 75.0 / 38.0
Rebounding 35.5 / 39.9 40.0 / 43.0
Steals 5.8 / 7.0 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 13.3 8.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BEL Advantage
26-6-0 (81.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +2.2
MTSU
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BEL Advantage
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +2.2
MTSU
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
BEL
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +4.1
MTSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTSU
BEL
MTSU
BEL
ML
56% 18-14
47% 15-17
69% 22-10
62% 20-12
ATS
75% 24-8
56% 18-14
69% 22-10
62% 20-12
TTL
53% 17-15
44% 14-18
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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