Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wolf Pack @ Cougars NEV @ WSU

NEVADA

WOLF PACKNEV

7-3  |  Road

78
FINAL
Sun, Dec 7 • 5:00 PM ET
Beasley Coliseum
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON STATE

COUGARSWSU

3-7  |  Home

64
AI Model Win Probability
WOLF PACK
0%
📊
COUGARS
100%
WOLF PACK --
COUGARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
NEVADA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Nevada)
Wolf PackNEV (-3.5) 0 CougarsWSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wolf Pack Cover

93.3%

Cougars Cover

6.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NEV -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NEV)

NEV By 1-7 points

15.3%

NEV By 8-14 points

25.3%

WSU By 1-7 points

4.8%

WSU By 8-14 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
90
NEVADA
75
WASHINGTON STATE
Simulated Score
69
NEVADA
74
WASHINGTON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wolf Pack Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cougars Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wolf Pack (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Cougars (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.5 Loss
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 7, 2025 NEV @ WSU 78 - 64
Dec 2, 2024 WSU @ NEV 68 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +44.7% more
Nevada: 4.7 vs Washington State: 2.6
Assists (L5) +24.0% more
Nevada: 16.5 vs Washington State: 12.5
Turnovers (L5) +87.2% more
Washington State: 15.8 vs Nevada: 8.5
Free Throw % (L5) +6.8%
Washington State: 77.6% vs Nevada: 70.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NEV Score 90.0 78
WSU Score 75.0 64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.6 / 39.5 29.0 / 50.0
Assists 12.5 / 16.5 9.0 / 8.0
Blocks 2.6 / 4.7 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.5 / 44.7 39.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 77.6 / 70.8 77.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 34.5 / 36.7 34.0 / 35.0
Steals 5.6 / 5.3 3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 15.8 / 8.5 14.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NEV Advantage
24-13-0 (64.9%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.2
WSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NEV Advantage
22-15-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.2
WSU
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NEV
21-16-0
O: 56.8% / U: 43.2% Total +/-: +2.7
WSU
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSU
NEV
WSU
NEV
ML
78% 25-7
62% 23-14
69% 20-9
73% 27-10
ATS
78% 25-7
73% 27-10
69% 20-9
73% 27-10
TTL
62% 20-12
49% 18-19
100% 29-0
100% 37-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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