Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hoyas @ Tar Heels GTWN @ UNC

GEORGETOWN

HOYASGTWN

6-3  |  Road

61
FINAL
Sun, Dec 7 • 5:00 PM ET
Dean E. Smith Center
View Odds Details →

NORTH CAROLINA

TAR HEELSUNC

8-1  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
HOYAS
100%
📊
TAR HEELS
0%
HOYAS --
TAR HEELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (North Carolina)
HoyasGTWN (-3.5) 0 Tar HeelsUNC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hoyas Cover

0.3%

Tar Heels Cover

99.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNC -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNC)

GTWN By 1-7 points

0.2%

GTWN By 8-14 points

0.0%

UNC By 1-7 points

1.7%

UNC By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
60
GEORGETOWN
88
NORTH CAROLINA
Simulated Score
71
GEORGETOWN
82
NORTH CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tar Heels Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tar Heels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tar Heels (-10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
D
Sim Tar Heels (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 7, 2025 GTWN @ UNC 61 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +26.1% more
North Carolina: 11.1 vs Georgetown: 8.8
Rebounding (L5) +19.0% more
North Carolina: 39.9 vs Georgetown: 33.5
Steals (L5) +34.3% more
Georgetown: 7.7 vs North Carolina: 5.1
Assists (L5) +25.5% more
Georgetown: 18.7 vs North Carolina: 13.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GTWN Score 60.0 61
UNC Score 88.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.4 / 37.0 32.0 / 17.0
Assists 13.9 / 18.7 15.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.3 / 3.9 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.5 / 46.4 48.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 69.0 / 71.8 67.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 39.9 / 33.5 45.0 / 36.0
Steals 5.1 / 7.7 2.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 8.8 9.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
96%MONEY4%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GTWN
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.3
UNC Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GTWN
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.3
UNC Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
GTWN
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.4
UNC
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNC
GTWN
UNC
GTWN
ML
76% 25-8
67% 22-11
69% 22-10
73% 22-8
ATS
73% 24-9
58% 19-14
69% 22-10
73% 22-8
TTL
55% 18-15
58% 19-14
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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