Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bearkats @ Tigers SHSU @ TXSO

SAM HOUSTON

BEARKATSSHSU

5-3  |  Road

82
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 5:00 PM ET
H&PE Arena
View Odds Details →

TEXAS SOUTHERN

TIGERSTXSO

1-5  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
BEARKATS
100%
📊
TIGERS
0%
BEARKATS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
TEXAS SOUTHERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Texas Southern)
BearkatsSHSU (-3.5) 0 TigersTXSO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bearkats Cover

38.2%

Tigers Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TXSO -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TXSO)

SHSU By 1-7 points

21.6%

SHSU By 8-14 points

10.7%

TXSO By 1-7 points

27.2%

TXSO By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
74
SAM HOUSTON
77
TEXAS SOUTHERN
Simulated Score
68
SAM HOUSTON
72
TEXAS SOUTHERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 SHSU @ TXSO 82 - 70
Dec 7, 2024 TXSO @ SHSU 71 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +36.5% more
Texas Southern: 16.1 vs Sam Houston: 11.8
Steals (L5) +22.7% more
Texas Southern: 8.4 vs Sam Houston: 6.8
Blocks (L5) +16.7% more
Texas Southern: 3.1 vs Sam Houston: 2.6
Field Goal % (L5) +2.8%
Texas Southern: 49.8% vs Sam Houston: 47.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SHSU Score 74.0 82
TXSO Score 77.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.5 / 39.7 21.0 / 23.0
Assists 9.5 / 17.0 7.0 / 15.0
Blocks 3.1 / 2.6 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 49.8 / 47.0 33.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 64.4 / 77.0 75.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 35.5 / 38.1 40.0 / 48.0
Steals 8.4 / 6.8 7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 16.1 / 11.8 15.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
98%MONEY2%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SHSU Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +3.5
TXSO
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SHSU Advantage
20-11-0 (64.5%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +3.5
TXSO
9-19-0 (32.1%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SHSU
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +2.2
TXSO
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXSO
SHSU
TXSO
SHSU
ML
64% 18-10
55% 18-15
71% 17-7
74% 23-8
ATS
61% 17-11
64% 21-12
71% 17-7
74% 23-8
TTL
71% 20-8
48% 16-17
100% 24-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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