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CHICAGO STATE

COUGARSCHST

1-9  |  Road

53
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 8:00 PM ET
CEFCU Arena
View Odds Details →

ILLINOIS STATE

REDBIRDSILST

8-2  |  Home

95
AI Model Win Probability
COUGARS
100%
📊
REDBIRDS
0%
COUGARS --
REDBIRDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
121.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
ILLINOIS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Illinois State)
CougarsCHST (-3.5) 0 RedbirdsILST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cougars Cover

0.3%

Redbirds Cover

99.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ILST -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILST)

CHST By 1-7 points

0.3%

CHST By 8-14 points

0.0%

ILST By 1-7 points

2.2%

ILST By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
47
CHICAGO STATE
74
ILLINOIS STATE
Simulated Score
65
CHICAGO STATE
72
ILLINOIS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Redbirds Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Redbirds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Redbirds (-21.5) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim Redbirds (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u144.5 Loss
Proj Total: 121.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 CHST @ ILST 53 - 95
Dec 19, 2022 CHST @ ILST 52 - 66
Dec 11, 2021 ILST @ CHST 81 - 71
Dec 15, 2020 CHST @ ILST 62 - 91
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +221.0% more
Illinois State: 2.6 vs Chicago State: 0.4
Assists (L5) +44.7% more
Illinois State: 14.1 vs Chicago State: 9.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.8%
Illinois State: 40.2% vs Chicago State: 29.4%
Field Goal % (L5) +7.5%
Illinois State: 49.8% vs Chicago State: 42.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHST Score 47.0 53
ILST Score 74.0 95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.2 / 29.4 38.0 / 26.0
Assists 14.1 / 9.8 30.0 / 5.0
Blocks 2.6 / 0.4 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 49.8 / 42.3 51.0 / 29.0
Free Throw % 71.6 / 71.1 53.0 / 93.0
Rebounding 37.3 / 39.4 48.0 / 31.0
Steals 6.6 / 8.4 6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 9.7 / 13.8 12.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHST
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -10.3 ATS +/-: +0.4
ILST Advantage
23-13-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHST
15-15-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -10.3 ATS +/-: +0.4
ILST Advantage
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
CHST
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.5
ILST
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILST
CHST
ILST
CHST
ML
42% 15-21
75% 24-8
71% 24-10
73% 22-8
ATS
58% 21-15
69% 22-10
71% 24-10
73% 22-8
TTL
58% 21-15
44% 14-18
100% 34-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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