Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Grizzlies @ Fighting Hawks MONT @ UND

MONTANA

GRIZZLIESMONT

5-5  |  Road

79
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 8:00 PM ET
Betty Engelstad Sioux Center
View Odds Details →

NORTH DAKOTA

FIGHTING HAWKSUND

3-8  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
100%
📊
FIGHTING HAWKS
0%
GRIZZLIES --
FIGHTING HAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
119.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
NORTH DAKOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (North Dakota)
GrizzliesMONT (-3.5) 0 Fighting HawksUND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

9.7%

Fighting Hawks Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UND -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UND)

MONT By 1-7 points

6.8%

MONT By 8-14 points

1.7%

UND By 1-7 points

18.6%

UND By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
53
MONTANA
66
NORTH DAKOTA
Simulated Score
71
MONTANA
73
NORTH DAKOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Fighting Hawks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Fighting Hawks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Fighting Hawks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Fighting Hawks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 119.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 MONT @ UND 79 - 75
Nov 15, 2021 MONT @ UND 77 - 79
Dec 6, 2019 UND @ MONT 70 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +58.8% more
North Dakota: 8.5 vs Montana: 5.3
Blocks (L5) +61.2% more
Montana: 3.3 vs North Dakota: 1.3
Assists (L5) +42.2% more
Montana: 16.9 vs North Dakota: 9.8
Rebounding (L5) +19.7% more
Montana: 34.7 vs North Dakota: 27.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MONT Score 53.0 79
UND Score 66.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.3 / 35.8 24.0 / 50.0
Assists 9.8 / 16.9 8.0 / 14.0
Blocks 1.3 / 3.3 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 39.3 / 47.6 42.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 64.3 / 65.1 78.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 27.9 / 34.7 34.0 / 33.0
Steals 8.5 / 5.3 14.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 14.2 / 14.4 10.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MONT Advantage
18-16-0 (52.9%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
UND
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MONT
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
UND Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MONT
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.4
UND
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UND
MONT
UND
MONT
ML
44% 15-19
39% 13-20
50% 17-17
73% 24-9
ATS
50% 17-17
55% 18-15
50% 17-17
73% 24-9
TTL
65% 22-12
59% 19-13-1
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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